The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

CMBS workouts aren’t for the faint of heart—and CMBS expert Shlomo Chopp knows it better than most. With 20+ years of experience untangling distressed assets, Shlomo offers a rare, unsparing look into what borrowers, bondholders, and even AAA investors often get wrong. From why “non-recourse” loans aren’t always what they seem to how banking can relationships collapse under pressure, Shlomo lays out why CMBS is a different beast—and why many borrowers walk in unprepared. He dives into tranche warfare, special servicers, and the dangers of relying on outdated property values.For bondholders, the takeaway is clear: think like real estate professionals. If you're not walking the property and talking to brokers, you're already behind. Stay to the end to hear a sneak peek of Shlomo’s patented micro-fulfillment retail centers—aimed at reviving malls by merging e-commerce with in-store logistics.This episode is part finance class, part war story, and a must-listen for anyone trying to read between the lines of CRE distress.01:13 Understanding CMBS Borrowers and Their Motivations03:19 Recourse vs Non-Recourse Loans in CMBS07:36 Complexities of CMBS Trusts and Workouts11:25 Navigating Distress in CMBS Investments15:17 The Importance of Market Awareness for Investors25:20 Understanding Market Dynamics and Credit Risk29:38 Current State of the Distress Cycle32:43 The Evolution of Retail in the E-Commerce EraHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Markets may have cheered a court ruling limiting presidential tariff power—but don’t mistake it for clarity. The LightBox team—Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker—unpacks what’s really moving CRE: supply chain strains, shaky retail guidance, and tariff whiplash. Retailers are pulling forecasts, investors are fatigued, and Manus warns we’ve moved “from panic to complacency” way too fast. Still, CRE activity remains resilient. LightBox data shows strong listing volumes and investor interest, with more than 130 NDAs per deal on average. Plus: a rare $865M hotel deal, a bullish $535M multifamily buy in Atlanta, and a surge in law firm office leasing. The team also dives into the latest twists in New York’s rent stabilization saga—and whether bathing suits might be the new eggs.02:49 Investor Sentiment and Market Complacency06:04 Retail Earnings and Tariff Impact11:34 CRE Activity and Market Trends13:38 Noteworthy Sales in Multifamily Sector22:35 The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Multifamily Loans27:37 Challenges in Rent Stabilization and Property Management30:58 Positive Trends in Office Space Leasing36:10 Emerging Trends in Retail and E-commerceHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

How are regional banks navigating today’s choppy economic and federal policy waters? The LightBox team gets an inside look when they talk to Matthew Osborne, EVP and Chief Credit Officer at Eastern Bank – a regional bank in the Boston MSA.  Matt explains why Boston’s chronic housing shortage is helping multifamily remain a magnet for capital, even as affordability pressures rise, and how a VC-fueled life sciences boom led to today’s glut of vacant lab space. His detailed breakdown of venture funding cycles, tenant demand, and submarket saturation is a must-listen for anyone tracking the life sciences and lab asset space. He also weighs in on why the market feels different this time, how lenders are stress-testing capital stacks, and what Boston’s biggest distressed office sale signals about future valuations. Plus, a black swan watch, a musical cameo, and why Here Comes the Sun might just be the theme song for 2025 lending.01:10 Key Concerns in CRE Lending03:22 Industry Sentiment and Market Cycles08:48 Boston's Multifamily Market and Housing Shortage14:58 Office to Residential Conversions in Boston23:13 Life Sciences and Lab Space in Boston33:46 Industrial Sector InsightsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

What separates good brokers from great ones? In this special episode, Martha, Manus, and Dianne chat with two titans of CRE sales—Bob Knakal and Rod Santomassimo— who get real about what it takes to succeed, scale, and stay relevant across decades of market cycles. From the grind of daily prospecting to the power of knowing what the market data means, they break down the 3 characteristics of top producers.Bob shares how his famed Map Room went from pandemic project to competitive differentiator, and why discipline, obsession, and a highlighter can be the components of long-term success. Rod explains why AI is changing the CRE sales game—but not replacing grit—and how their collaboration on a new book Selling Buildings is part memoir, part masterclass.  If you’re in the CRE capital markets – this is a must-listen with healthy doses of entertainment along the way.And stick around for the end, when the conversation takes a turn: who would play Bob and Rod in the movie version of their CRE journey?03:02 What Separates Good Brokers from Great Ones?07:07 The Map Room Origin Story Redux12:58 The Mindset of Success in Brokerage18:16 The Power of Visualization in Real Estate21:05 Navigating Challenges: Lessons from the Field24:00 Resilience in Tough Times: Advice for Brokers26:54 AI and the Future of Real Estate34:10 Leaving a Legacy: The Importance of MentorshipHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Does the first U.S. trade deal signal an off-ramp to global trade tensions? Stocks surged on news of the UK agreement, but other indicators suggest the market’s ebullience may be front-running reality.  And the Fed knows it. Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker break down the signals that may impact CRE. From lighter cargo ships at the Port of Los Angeles to persistent uncertainty in corporate earnings, warning signs run counter to renewed optimism. The team flags a shift from April’s panic to May’s complacency, cautioning that investors may be underestimating looming supply disruptions and price hikes. Despite the volatility, CRE transaction activity continues—the latest LightBox CRE Activity Index rose to 109 in April, its highest reading in nearly three years. The pace has slowed, but momentum remains steady.  The team unpacks what’s behind the numbers, including valuations, broker activity, and some deal delays tied to equity gaps and shifting expectations. There’s plenty to dive into: Amazon and Nvidia are making bold office bets, Brookfield is raising billions to target distressed assets, and overall deal volume is holding surprisingly steady. And yes—if the coffee supply chain falters, Manus warns it won’t just rattle sentiment. It’ll be an anvil to the head.00:16 Trade Deal Optimism01:13 Market Sentiment Ahead of Reality?02:50 Impact of Tariffs and Supply Chain Disruptions09:04 Federal Reserve Decision: Groundhog Day?11:41 LightBox CRE Activity Index Up20:03 Noteworthy Sales and Green Shoots28:16 Financing and Proof of Liquidity37:13 Listener CommentsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Distress is building in the CRE market—and borrowers are running out of room as opportunistic investors prepare to jump in.  The power duo Tammy and David Goldfisher of The Henley Group join the LightBox team to break down what’s really happening behind the scenes with distressed commercial real estate assets, workouts, and the evolving capital markets landscape. With over 30 years of experience each in lending, advisory, and CMBS workouts, they specialize in helping owners navigate distressed assets and save their properties. They explain why we’re still early in the distress cycle, where borrowers are making critical mistakes, and how loan workouts today look very different from the COVID-era playbook. From the hidden risks in floating-rate multifamily loans to the long grind ahead for distressed office assets, they offer a clear-eyed view of where the cracks are widening—and what lenders want to see from borrowers now. Don't miss their take on why early engagement matters, where capital markets are surprising to the upside, and why this cycle will reward those who move early—not those who wait for a rescue.01:26 Current Market Conditions and Distress 02:09 Loan Maturity and Valuation Gaps 04:38 Lender and Borrower Dynamics 10:09 Valuation Disputes and Market Transparency 14:25 Office Sector Challenges and Bright Spots 18:51 Common Misconceptions in Special Servicing 21:11 Optimal Timing for Borrower Engagement 23:40 Market Forecast and Liquidity 30:02 Unexpected Turnaround Stories Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Markets may be uncertain, but the LightBox team is keeping it grounded—with some perspective and invoking the classic Gimme Shelter. As investors brace for tariff fallout, Manus, Dianne, and Martha break down the latest headline fatigue, a housing market under pressure, and the question of whether the lending engine will keep running. The team dives into a stalled $778M securitization deal, a funding $17B pipeline on pause, and why “a dead battery, not a blown engine,” might be the best metaphor for today’s economic environment. Plus, the LightBox Appraisal Index shows lenders are still engaged—at least for now. And with the NFL Draft underway, the team hosts the first-ever, all-in-good-fun LightBox CRE Investment Draft, naming key picks (grocery-anchored retail, multifamily, data centers), sleepers (strip malls, medical office), and a bust (luxury hotels). As for wild cards, the team has it covered with converted offices and a surprise bet on San Francisco’s AI alley. It’s a packed episode filled with data, debate, and some pretty sharp team names. Let the CRE Draft smack talk begin.02:57 Economic Data Roundup06:20 Housing Market Slump09:16 Assessing the Trade War Impact12:19 Lending Market Signals19:59 LightBox Data Dive and Appraisal Snapshot27:49 Loan Modifications Rise in March32:57 The NFL Draft: CRE Investment PicksHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

The timing for this conversation couldn’t have been better. Former Federal Reserve insider Tyler Wiggers gives us a break down on what the Fed is thinking right now about monetary policy especially in the wake of the tariff turmoil and market volatility.  He shares why rate cuts may be further off than the market (and the Trump administration) hopes, and how the Fed is tracking stress points in real time, including CRE loan concentrations and the surge of hot money. Buckle up for a good history lesson on comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis and CMBS TALF (Term Asset backed Securities Loan Facility) the Fed’s bold move in 2008-2009 to help unfreeze the credit markets. From tariff-fueled inflation pressures to the signals hidden in the 10-year yield and redemption queues, Tyler offers a clear-eyed view of where the risks are mounting. He also weighs in on a big strategic question: is this a moment to play offense or tighten up and defend? Don’t miss his take on what could be the canary in the coal mine for U.S. assets—and what Fed Chairman before Jay Powell really wants to see before the Fed pivots.02:45 Market Volatility & CRE Risk at Regional Banks08:10 Signals the Fed Watches (That You Might Not)13:00 Lending Strategies During Uncertainty16:45 Rate Cuts & the Tariff Effect23:30 The Rise of Private CRE Lending & Its Risks28:00 Structural vs. Cyclical Reset in CRE34:50 Behind the Scenes of CMBS TALF & GFC RecoveryHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Rick Jones, Founder and Principal of Jackstay Ventures LLC, joins the LightBox crew to unpack the latest capital markets chaos stirred up by post-tariff volatility and macro uncertainty.  The conversation spans the latest pulse on recession risk and lender behavior to the evolving role of warehouse lending and the long-awaited wave of distressed debt. Rick’s take? The CRE market is doing just fine—but there are some tells that he says will warn us when real trouble is afoot. Never one to shy away from knotty topics, Rick makes the case for considering CMBS conduit reinvention, and why the best time to rethink assumptions is when no one thinks it’s necessary. Always entertaining, Rick takes the team conversation to high-rise mausoleums, magical thinking, and the dangers of overusing adjectives. 01:58 The Impact of Volatility on Commercial Real Estate06:41 The Role of Non-Bank Lenders10:36 The Distressed Debt Market13:07 Warehouse Lending15:16 The Slow Burn of Market Distress21:03 Office Distress: The Race to Resolve22:04 Is it Time to Rethink CMBS Conduits?27:26 Magical Thinking in Market Analysis Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

The team breaks down what Manus calls “tariffs on steroids” and why the impact is more opaque than anything we’ve seen before. With investors reacting to tariffs with a stock sell-off and a flight to the safety of Treasurys, the discussion focuses on the potential impact to commercial real estate (CRE).  Is CRE the new safe harbor? The LightBox CRE Activity Index suggests yes—for now. March saw its highest reading since September 2022, driven by gains in listings, appraisals, and site assessments. But even in this volatile market, there will be winners and losers. The team shares their glass-half-full and glass-half-empty takes on what’s next, asking the big question: Will April showers bring May flowers for CRE—or more market storms? And while investors search for safe alternatives, one brand is betting on comfort food. Waffle House is launching delivery at 500 locations, prompting the team to wonder: are waffles tariff-proof? Probably. As for sticky tables and hangovers—that’s another story.01:59 The Tariff Fallout Bigger and Broader than Expected07:58 Is Retail at Ground Zero for Tariff Impact?10:37 LightBox CRE Activity Index Insights14:34 Commercial Real Estate as a Safe Harbor?21:20 Positive Signs in CRE MarketHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com