The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

The timing for this conversation couldn’t have been better. Former Federal Reserve insider Tyler Wiggers gives us a break down on what the Fed is thinking right now about monetary policy especially in the wake of the tariff turmoil and market volatility.  He shares why rate cuts may be further off than the market (and the Trump administration) hopes, and how the Fed is tracking stress points in real time, including CRE loan concentrations and the surge of hot money. Buckle up for a good history lesson on comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis and CMBS TALF (Term Asset backed Securities Loan Facility) the Fed’s bold move in 2008-2009 to help unfreeze the credit markets. From tariff-fueled inflation pressures to the signals hidden in the 10-year yield and redemption queues, Tyler offers a clear-eyed view of where the risks are mounting. He also weighs in on a big strategic question: is this a moment to play offense or tighten up and defend? Don’t miss his take on what could be the canary in the coal mine for U.S. assets—and what Fed Chairman before Jay Powell really wants to see before the Fed pivots.02:45 Market Volatility & CRE Risk at Regional Banks08:10 Signals the Fed Watches (That You Might Not)13:00 Lending Strategies During Uncertainty16:45 Rate Cuts & the Tariff Effect23:30 The Rise of Private CRE Lending & Its Risks28:00 Structural vs. Cyclical Reset in CRE34:50 Behind the Scenes of CMBS TALF & GFC RecoveryHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Rick Jones, Founder and Principal of Jackstay Ventures LLC, joins the LightBox crew to unpack the latest capital markets chaos stirred up by post-tariff volatility and macro uncertainty.  The conversation spans the latest pulse on recession risk and lender behavior to the evolving role of warehouse lending and the long-awaited wave of distressed debt. Rick’s take? The CRE market is doing just fine—but there are some tells that he says will warn us when real trouble is afoot. Never one to shy away from knotty topics, Rick makes the case for considering CMBS conduit reinvention, and why the best time to rethink assumptions is when no one thinks it’s necessary. Always entertaining, Rick takes the team conversation to high-rise mausoleums, magical thinking, and the dangers of overusing adjectives. 01:58 The Impact of Volatility on Commercial Real Estate06:41 The Role of Non-Bank Lenders10:36 The Distressed Debt Market13:07 Warehouse Lending15:16 The Slow Burn of Market Distress21:03 Office Distress: The Race to Resolve22:04 Is it Time to Rethink CMBS Conduits?27:26 Magical Thinking in Market Analysis Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

The team breaks down what Manus calls “tariffs on steroids” and why the impact is more opaque than anything we’ve seen before. With investors reacting to tariffs with a stock sell-off and a flight to the safety of Treasurys, the discussion focuses on the potential impact to commercial real estate (CRE).  Is CRE the new safe harbor? The LightBox CRE Activity Index suggests yes—for now. March saw its highest reading since September 2022, driven by gains in listings, appraisals, and site assessments. But even in this volatile market, there will be winners and losers. The team shares their glass-half-full and glass-half-empty takes on what’s next, asking the big question: Will April showers bring May flowers for CRE—or more market storms? And while investors search for safe alternatives, one brand is betting on comfort food. Waffle House is launching delivery at 500 locations, prompting the team to wonder: are waffles tariff-proof? Probably. As for sticky tables and hangovers—that’s another story.01:59 The Tariff Fallout Bigger and Broader than Expected07:58 Is Retail at Ground Zero for Tariff Impact?10:37 LightBox CRE Activity Index Insights14:34 Commercial Real Estate as a Safe Harbor?21:20 Positive Signs in CRE MarketHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

This week the LightBox podcast team talks with Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) about the CRE debt market. Together, they discuss the current landscape of the commercial real estate finance market, highlighting a sharp rebound in market sentiment and CMBS issuance volumes. And, despite the robust levels of new issuance, lenders are proceeding with a disciplined approach to underwriting deals. Lisa shares insights into the performance of key asset classes and puts some important perspective on negative media headlines. The discussion also covers policy and regulation and the potential impact of stagflation on CRE finance, and the growing emphasis on affordable housing initiatives. And, Lisa closes with her thoughts about reasons for optimism in today’s market.01:19 Current State of the CRE Finance Market03:07 Market Sentiment and Robust Issuance Volume05:49 Challenges in the Office Sector10:04 Stagflation and Economic Concerns17:29 CREFC’s Engagement with Policy Makers20:47 Role of CRE CLOs for Transitional CRE Assets25:41 Reasons for Optimism in the MarketHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

A round of mixed economic data took a back seat to the investor focus on the Federal Reserve meeting. With the expected no change on interest rates, the focus was on Chairman Powell’s outlook, inflation forecasts – (yes, he said transitory again), and how the stock market corrections are shaping investor sentiment. The team also unpacks new data about the impact of tariffs, especially on consumer confidence and housing. In the commercial real estate sector, it's a dive into the good, bad, and ugly covering major office lease renewals, office-to-residential conversions, and even federal land development proposals. But with all the recent market madness, CRE investors seem to stay the course with February’s CRE big deals and new development projects in the LightBox Data Dive, highlighting the CRE market’s liquidity. Listen to the end to hear the team’s own March Madness picks!00:24 Fed Comforter and Chief? 02:44 Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment 04:51 Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty 12:15 Housing Market & Affordability Trends 19:15 LightBox Data Dive: Big Deal Monitor  21:55 Office: The Good, Bad and Ugly  37:08 NCAA March Madness Picks Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Markets whipsawed this week against a barrage of policy and economic headlines. Inflation cooled more than expected, which was welcome news, but investors grappled with trade war escalations sparking recession fears and a sharp selloff in equities. Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down how macro uncertainty is shaping investor sentiment, from rising bond yields to heightened volatility in the stock market. Despite the turbulence, the LightBox CRE Activity Index surged 19% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year, signaling continued strength in commercial real estate transactions. The team also unpacks the latest CMBS issuance surge, what Delta’s earnings reveal about business travel pullbacks, and why CRE investors remain focused on deal flow even as the economy wobbles. With CRE sentiment still resilient, the question remains: is this just a market correction, or are we edging closer to a recession? 04:26 Interest Rates and Market Sentiment 09:51 Uncertainty in Tariffs and Government Shutdown 12:54 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Surges 15:33 CRE Lending Trends and Market Sentiment 22:19 Navigating the CMBS Landscape 25:48 More Green Shoots in the Office Market 28:57 San Francisco Shows Positive Signs 31:19 Reflections on the Pandemic's Impact Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

This week, experts dissect the chaos of tariff turbulence and its implications for commercial real estate, likening the market to a wild rafting trip. There's a surprising surge in mortgage applications as buyers score lower rates. Manhattan sees a rush in leasing activity, while savvy investors are acquiring distressed assets. They dive into the growing CRE activity index, and highlight appealing new property listings. To lighten the mood, the team humorously chats about the eye-catching Kim Kardashian balloon in Times Square, discussing its influence on retail.

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down the latest twists that impacted the commercial real estate market this week, from bond yields and the flipping yield curve to the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest pending home sales reading in over 25 years—all signaling a bumpy road ahead. The team asks: are we stuck in the mud? The retail sector is facing its own turbulence, with store closures and layoffs, but some positive signs as REITs predict a rollicking 2025 for retail investment. Meanwhile, the reality is sinking in about the GSA lease terminations as details emerge on which properties are on the chopping block—pulling the rug out from under parts of the D.C. (and other!) office markets—just as some were starting to show signs of life. And amid all the uncertainty, NVIDIA’s earnings were a modest beat but more importantly, offered insight into strong drivers of demand for data centers and related AI infrastructure for CRE investors and operators.00:19 Economic Data Highlights 01:03 Tariff Announcements and Market Reactions 02:09 Consumer Confidence and Market Sentiment 04:52 Housing Market Concerns 09:40 Recession Indicators and Bond Markets 13:33 Impact of AI and Tech Earnings 16:15 Federal Lease Terminations and Office Market Impact 24:53 Retail Market Updates 36:20 Listener Comments and Final Thoughts Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down a short, yet jam-packed week in the markets, from the Fed’s “status quo” minutes and weak housing data to Walmart’s downbeat retail outlook and a major shake-up in government office leases. They dissect the 2.3 million square feet of leases on the chopping block—half in D.C.—and the ripple effects for landlords, small-town economies, and lenders. While CRE sentiment is cautiously optimistic, no one’s popping the champagne just yet. The team also unpacks lodging sector trends, San Diego’s red-hot multifamily market, and growing office leasing momentum in some unexpected markets. On the retail front, the team discusses store closures, expansion plans, and newly listed properties. And in a final twist, KFC is taking the “K” out of KFC—well, sort of.00:30 Market Reactions to Retail Sales and Walmart Earnings 04:08 Fed Minutes and Interest Rate Speculations 07:08 CRE Market Sentiments and Trends 09:51 Housing Market Challenges 12:54 Government Lease Terminations 17:58 Lodging Sector Developments 21:38 Positive Signs in the Office Market 29:49 Retail Sector Updates 33:23 Multifamily Market InsightsHave question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com

Martha, Manus, and Dianne dig into the latest economic data, including inflation reports that sent mixed signals to the markets. Consumer inflation came in hotter than expected, rattling the bond markets, while Fed Chair Powell maintained a steady stance, signaling no rush to adjust policy. The team also discussed the downstream effects of federal layoffs, the cautiously optimistic forecast for CRE lending in 2025, and the sentiment coming out of the MBA conference—where banks are back, but no one is calling the market “normal” just yet. This episode also featured a discussion about the recent LightBox Wildfires Report with insights on the environmental impact of the Palisades and Eaton fires. The discussion highlighted the hidden risks of contamination in rebuilding efforts and how environmental intelligence is shaping recovery efforts.  And, with Valentine’s Day this week, the team considers an unconventional gift option. 02:10 Inflation Reports and Market Sentiment 09:29 Federal Layoffs and Local Economies 12:02 CRE Lending and Market Forecasts 20:53 Office and Retail Market Updates 27:00 Lightbox Data Dive: Wildfires Report 28:50 Big Game Scorecard: How’d We Do? Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com