The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

The CRE Weekly Digest team is joined by Craig Benton, Director of Valuation Services at Synovus Financial, to unpack the state of commercial real estate from the appraisal and lending POV. The team kicks off with a scorecard on Craig’s 2024 CRE predictions, earning nearly straight A’s for calling sector-specific downturns, rate cuts, and the timing of deal volume recovery and shares where values are rising, stabilizing, or slipping as we head deeper into 2025. The conversation spans tariffs and construction costs, insurance trends, the wave (or lack thereof) of loan maturities, and why grocery-anchored retail remains a safe haven. Craig also dives into the rise of data centers as billion-dollar assets, the training challenges facing the appraisal profession, and how AI is reshaping valuation work. While bullish on CRE overall, Craig is clear-eyed about the long-term uncertainty facing office and weaker malls. It’s a wide-ranging, data-rich look at how valuations are shaping the next phase of the cycle.01:10 Grading Craig’s 2024 Predictions03:24 Market Pulse Check06:02 Inside the Appraisal Process10:28 Career Path & Appraisal Challenges14:16 Refis, Distress & the “Maturity Tsunami” That Never Came19:00 Asset Class Outlook: Retail resilience, multifamily shifts & the data center boom27:36 AI in Appraisals & What Market Value Really MeansHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

For the shortened week ending September 5, The CRE Weekly Digest team unpacks a turbulent few days in the markets. A federal court ruling that could unwind $500B in tariffs sent bond yields soaring, only to be reversed by disappointing labor data that pushed rates back down. With job openings now below the number of job seekers for the first time since COVID, investors are parsing signals of a labor market slowdown while equities stay frothy at record highs. Manus Clancy warns that the Fed may move slower than markets expect, leaving stocks vulnerable to disappointment. Dianne Crocker highlights the Fed’s Beige Book, which shows “50 shades of beige” across CRE but points to strength in data center construction and flight-to-quality office leasing. LightBox’s CRE Activity Index logged 104.8 in August, down from July’s highs but still above 100 for the seventh straight month. The team also breaks down a flurry of transactions: New York office towers trading at steep discounts, industrial portfolios commanding premium demand, and multifamily remaining the most active sector with $35B in Q2 sales. Plus: San Francisco’s AI-driven office rebound, McDonald’s rebooting value meals, and Manus’ annual (and very biased) Super Bowl prediction.LightBox Fundamentals: Transforming CRE Appraisals with AI-Powered Data Extraction Join us on Wednesday, September 10th at 2:00 p.m. ET for a 30-minute launch overview of LightBox Fundamentals—the new AI-powered platform that turns appraisal PDFs into structured, decision-ready data with zero manual effort.00:36 Market Reactions to Tariff Ruling and Jobs Data05:41 Bond vs. Equity Markets: A Deep Dive07:24 Federal Reserve Dynamics and Market Predictions09:48 CRE Market Trends and Insights25:08 Spotlight on Sales TransactionsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

CMBS issuance has roared back, yet distress, especially in office keeps building. In this episode, Michael Haas, founder & CEO of Credit IQ, joins us to separate signal from noise across CMBS and CRE CLOs. We dig into what the data shows right now, why CMBS has been winning share from the GSEs, and how five-year structures and bank scrutiny are shaping borrower behavior. Mike explains his firm’s definition of distress (special servicing and/or delinquency), the flight-to-quality dynamic in office, and the early warning triggers their team watches: occupancy drops, DSCR trends, tenant downsizes, and debt-yield thresholds. We also unpack details behind headline cases like Worldwide Plaza and Times Square retail, why small rate cuts won’t fix maturity walls, and where resolutions are getting stuck. The team wraps with a positive scenario that would mark a true market turning point.Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

David Auerbach, Chief Investment Officer at Hoya Capital Real Estate, joins hosts Manus Clancy and Martha Coacher for a deep dive into the misunderstood world of REITs. Often dismissed as “boring” or overlooked next to market movers like Apple, Nvidia, or even crypto, REITs are in fact powering much of the CRE ecosystem. Auerbach explains why misconceptions, like REITs being purely interest rate sensitive, miss the bigger picture of tenant contracts, long-term income streams, and transparency that other real estate investors should watch.The conversation spans REIT performance since the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle began in 2022 (underperforming the S&P by 50%), the surprising rebound in senior housing, the structural demand for rentals amid unaffordable home prices, and why data centers and towers now make up 25% of REIT indexes while office is just 4%. Auerbach also outlines the “graduating class” of REITs, from the Ivy-bound aristocrats to the troublemakers in the penalty box, and why active management matters for spotting warning signs.Listeners will hear why Berkshire Hathaway’s quiet moves into REITs matter and which market signals Auerbach watches (hint: the 10-year Treasury vs. Fed Funds). Packed with insights, data, and forward-looking signals, this episode is essential listening for anyone navigating CRE investing in a volatile market.00:55 Understanding REITs in CRE04:14Macro Shifts & REIT Resilience07:44 Data Centers, Housing & Everyday Use11:00 Spotting Opportunities in REIT Trends16:45 Active Management Levers: Dividends & Leverage28:26 Market Signals and Future OutlookHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

For the week ending August 15, The CRE Weekly Digest team digs into a tale of two markets. Hot wholesale inflation data dampened hopes for a jumbo September rate cut, but investors are still more focused on the prospect of cheaper money than the persistence of higher prices. Manus Clancy warns that U.S. equities are looking dangerously complacent – with historically high P/E ratios, low volatility, and frothy valuations – but sees a steadier hand in commercial real estate. LightBox transaction data shows $160B in 2025 deals to date, with July posting a 10% jump in deals over $50M, and a broad, sober buyer pool keeping valuations grounded. Dianne Crocker spotlights that 54% of office deals are trading at a discount, while multifamily remains the most in-demand listing type. The team also covers steep Pasadena office price cuts, San Francisco hotel distress, and the flow of plentiful (often private equity) capital into even riskier CRE projects. Plus: Disney-branded housing, relocation cash incentives from unexpected cities, and why insurance costs could be CRE’s biggest near-term headwind.00:18 Market Complacency and Inflation Concerns 01:57 Frothy Equities vs. Steady CRE Markets 03:47 CRE Market Activity and Measured Optimism 09:08 LightBox Data Dive: July Transactions 17:46 Noteworthy Transactions and Market Trends 29:19 Upcoming Webinar and Disney “Storyliving” Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

We welcome back Ryan Severino, Managing Director, Chief Economist and Head of Research at BGO, for a sweeping conversation on the macroeconomic forces shaping commercial real estate in the back half of 2025. Fresh off being named one of PERE’s 100 most influential figures in global real estate, Ryan joins the LightBox team to unpack everything from the timing of potential rate cuts and labor market risks to the rise of AI-driven forecasting and why multifamily may be the ultimate outperformer in a high-tariff environment.With his signature contrarian perspective, Ryan explains why he correctly predicted fewer, later rate cuts this year and why he sees more downside risk in the labor market than runaway inflation. He unpacks how trade policy shifts and tariff shocks are distorting Fed strategy, creating "triple whammy" risks for consumers, and slowing – but not halting – CRE recovery. You'll also hear why his firm, BGO is doubling down on AI-powered forecasting, how Gen Z is reshaping retail demand, and why office might finally be turning a corner.From real-time data revisions to trillion-point predictive models, this episode is packed with timely insights on what's working, what’s wobbly, and what lies ahead for CRE. Don’t miss Ryan’s bold predictions and the one indicator he’s watching most closely.01:29 Economic Predictions and Market Analysis03:11 Impact of Recent Job Reports06:08 Fed's Dual Mandate and Rate Cuts17:52 Commercial Real Estate Market Sentiment24:29 Sector-Specific Insights: Multifamily, Office, Industrial, and Retail35:42 The Role of Technology in ForecastingHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

While the Fed held rates steady as expected, the bigger story may be what's underneath:Corporate earnings show tariffs are starting to bite.  Economic data prints are increasingly mixed. And the labor market is still holding out. But for how long? Manus takes a minute to assess the Fed funds rate stalemate. And he provides a thought about why a rate cut might be prudent right now. Dianne sees 2025 shaping up like déjà vu: rate cuts always just out of reach, as the market tiptoes through cooling demand and growing consumer strain.CRE, though, keeps humming. July deal volume jumped. LightBox’s own market sentiment survey shows steady to strong expectations for the second half. Phase I ESA activity rose 13% year over year. Multifamily is leading with major trades in New York City and the South Bronx. Even office is moving, with buyers chasing discounts and pricing finally settling. The team also flags a growing concern that data centers are starting to monopolize power, labor, and capital, which may potentially strain resources for other projects.The episode close reflecting on the loss of Blackstone’s Wesley LePatner. A respected leader and fierce advocate for women in commercial real estate, her passing is a profound loss for the entire CRE finance community. Our condolences to all the victims of the tragedy.00:15 Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Impacts01:34 Tariffs and Their Economic Consequences04:19 Labor Market Insights11:05 LightBox Midyear CRE Market Sentiment Survey Results20:17 Multifamily and Mixed-Use Transactions26:51 Office Market Trends33:44 Data Centers and Construction Resources38:57 Tragedy in Midtown: Remembering Wesley LePatnerHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist and Global Head of Forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield, joins the LightBox team for a focused conversation on the macroeconomic forces shaping commercial real estate in the back half of 2025. With stagflation creeping in, tariffs hitting record highs, and policy uncertainty clouding forecasts, Rebecca breaks down what’s different about this cycle and why the road ahead could be bumpier than many expect. From the surprising resilience in CRE capital markets to growing inflationary pressures in the goods economy, she explains why retail and industrial are especially vulnerable, and how the multifamily and office sectors are navigating this transition. Rebecca shares why construction costs are poised to rise 4.5% due to tariffs, how that could pause new development, and what that means for vacancy and rent trends heading into 2026. She also weighs in on where the Fed might land on rate cuts, what’s really driving office recovery (hint: it’s not just RTO), and why 2027 could shape up to be a banner year for CRE. Packed with data, context, and a dose of Rolling Stones wisdom, this episode is a must-listen for anyone looking to make sense of an uneven economic outlook. 01:04 Stagflation Watch: Are We Already There? 03:35 Policy Shocks & Forecasting in Uncharted Waters 04:42 Resilience in Capital Markets 13:00 Sector Snapshot: Retail, Industrial, Office & Multifamily 21:18 Construction Cost Crunch & Development Slowdown 31:17 The “One Big Beautiful Bill” & What It Means for CRE 34:00 Crystal Ball Closeout: Labor Signals, CRE Resilience & What’s Next Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

This week’s slate of economic data left pundits divided even as investors cheered on rising markets. Retail sales surprised to the upside, inflation was muted, and bank earnings beat forecasts. However, deeper trends raise caution: tariff receipts are surging, homebuilders are cutting prices, and the Trump–Powell standoff briefly rattled equity and bond markets.Manus remains bullish yet uneasy, warning that someone is absorbing billions in monthly tariff costs, and the bill may soon come due. Dianne points to the mixed results of the LightBox sentiment survey and leans on Jamie Dimon’s line this quarter: “forecasting is a waste of time.”The LightBox Appraisal Index rose in Q2 on retail and industrial demand, but cost uncertainty still looms. Industrial sector activity continued with big bets from Brookfield, Prologis, and Blackstone. Office continues to struggle evidenced by a round of transactions with Portland’s “Big Pink” tower selling at an 88% haircut. And outside the CRE market, the team weighs in on reports of Delta's AI-powered ticket pricing. What are your thoughts?We want your take. LightBox is about to close the Midyear 2025 CRE Market Survey and we want to hear from experts like you across valuation, due diligence, lending, investment, and brokerage. We’re exploring your reflections on the first half of 2025 and your outlook for the months ahead. Click here to take the survey > The survey closes EOD Friday, July 18th, and we’ll be sharing the results shortly thereafter.02:51 Tariffs and Inflation Impact09:01 Trump-Powell Tensions12:00 LightBox Lender Appraisal Insights14:59 Big Transactions in Industrial Real Estate18:02 Office Market Challenges20:46 Infrastructure Plays for Data Centers24:01 Retail to Industrial Transformations26:49 The AI Price is Right?Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com

David Putro, Head of Analytics for Morningstar Credit, doesn’t sugarcoat it. In this candid conversation with the LightBox team, he offers an unflinching look at where distress is building in commercial real estate and why resolution is moving at a crawl. With a sharp focus on office, multifamily, and malls, David explains why this cycle is unfolding slower than the last, and why some properties may never exit special servicing. From billion-dollar loans stuck in limbo to zombie malls surviving on post-COVID extensions, he lays out the long road ahead for asset resolution.  The picture of growing distress offers a stark counterpoint to the healthy surge in CMBS lending so far in 2025.  So, what gives?David breaks it all down and shares what Morningstar’s “Boots on the Ground” research reveals that spreadsheets miss (think vacancy patterns, tenant quality, and hidden red flags that influence recovery timelines). Don't miss David’s outlook on where distress is headed for the rest of 2025, why office assets remain frozen, and what really keeps credit pros like him up at night (spoiler: it’s not just interest rates).00:55 Market Paradox: CRE Distress and CMBS Issuance02:05 Challenges in Multifamily and Office Sectors03:49 CMBS Purgatory and Loan Resolutions10:59 Mall Distress and Adaptive Reuse20:07 Boots on the Ground: Real Estate Insights27:08 Future Outlook and ConcernHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. Send us a textwww.lightboxre.com