The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

Everyone in New York is wondering the same thing: what will Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s win mean for the city—and for commercial real estate? Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dig into how his campaign promises on affordable housing, rent freezes, and tax hikes could reshape investor sentiment and property values in the country’s largest CRE market. They also discuss a week filled with contradictions, from job data that exceeded expectations to major companies announcing new rounds of layoffs, along with a federal government shutdown now reaching record length. Dianne shares highlights from the Real Estate Finance Association’s Connecticut event featuring Manulife’s Victor Calanog, who offered a surprisingly upbeat message: “CRE is back-ish.” That tone aligns with LightBox data showing October’s CRE Activity Index holding steady despite persistent headwinds. Also in focus are a $560 million Miami solar-integrated condo tower, Manhattan’s leasing surge, and a record $7.2 billion medical office portfolio deal. The episode closes with a Veterans Day “slice of life” and an unexpected question: is the Pentagon considering leasing land at Camp Pendleton?01:06 New York City's New Mayor: Implications for CRE06:21 Economic Data and Market Trends11:07 Positive Developments in CRE16:46 Labor Market Insights and Layoffs20:10 Recent Deals and Market Activity31:55 Veterans Day and Community ImpactHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

As the Fed trimmed rates a second time this week after a cooler-than-expected CPI report, trade tensions between the U.S. and China appeared to ease, the federal shutdown entered its second month, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dialed into what it all means for CRE. With Chair Powell’s caution that a December cut isn’t guaranteed, major corporate layoffs at Amazon, GM, and Paramount sharpened concerns that the job market is losing steam, giving the Fed more cover for additional rate relief. The episode also touched on how CRE lenders and appraisals are responding to AI and the risks of leaning too heavily on automated analysis without professional judgment.Manus and Dianne also dive into the week’s standout deals, from a promising $40M Chicago office-to-data center conversion to South Florida’s multifamily resurgence, plus LightBox platform data showing a dramatic 30% increase in nondisclosure agreements filed on property listings.  The market’s mood as we enter the second month of Q4? Confident, but not complacent.01:09 Market Highlights and Economic Updates03:58 Corporate Layoffs and Labor Market Trends08:58 The Impact of AI on Employment11:00 Hurricane Melissa and Climate Risk16:30 Future Outlook for Commercial Real Estate17:47 Data Dive: Investor Interest and NDAs23:02 Development Deals and Multifamily InvestmentsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Commercial real estate isn’t flinching. In this week’s LightBox CRE Weekly Digest, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down a market showing surprising steadiness as the federal shutdown drags on and another Fed rate decision looms. They dig into what’s really behind the “bad loan” headlines and reveal what the latest LightBox Environmental Due Diligence Market Advisory Council survey suggests about Q4 momentum (the rating might surprise you). Plus: a $2B LA warehouse transformation, record NYC office leasing led by finance and tech, a standout office-to-resi success, and retail capital still flowing from Annapolis to the West Coast. The episode wraps with a look at what’s keeping deals moving, and a personal milestone from Manus you won’t want to miss. 02:10 Market Snapshot: Shutdown & Earnings05:40 Tariffs, Trade Tensions & Corporate Confidence09:00 Banking Sector & Fraud Watch13:00 CRE Sentiment Turns Positive17:30 Due Diligence & Lending Activity24:00 NYC & LA: CRE Revival Stories28:30 Office-to-Resi Success & Housing Momentum33:30 Retail Strength & Selective Investor DemandHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Tariff shock, federal data blackout, and CRE dealmaking…still strengthening. This week, a new 100%-tariff threat on China could rejigger aluminum/steel inputs that already jumped 50%+ in Cushman & Wakefield’s math, and the federal shutdown kept key economic releases in the dark. Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down what it all means on the ground: how tariffs could slow new development (and support pricing), encouraging signs from big banks, and the great office reset in full swing. See the Midtown tower that sold at 43% below its 2007 mark. We also hit the $40B BlackRock–NVIDIA data-center pact, sturdier Q3 bank prints, and why multifamily is crowding institutional pipelines. Plus, a $660M loan modification negotiated by Iron Hound Management on a national office/industrial portfolio highlights how uncertainty around GSA lease risk is complicating refis. Bottom line: volatility may be rising, but CRE isn’t flinching. Investors remain disciplined and focused on deals that pencil. 03:30 Impact of Tariffs on Construction and CRE08:20 Bank Earnings and Corporate Failures13:13 Commercial Real Estate Trends17:39 Federal Shutdown Effects on CRE21:54 Leases and Transactions in the Office Segment26:38 Industrial Sector Boom31:26 Luxury Developments and Market DynamicsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

As we finish week two of the federal shutdown, markets shifted into risk-off mode while investors fly without official data. The team unpacks the Fed’s September minutes (cuts likely, cadence uncertain), lean on alternative signals (Carlyle’s real-time payrolls), and explains why the labor outlook is fragile. In CRE capital markets, the team breaks down how continuation vehicles are bridging liquidity, why loan modifications are up sharply yet still a small share of bank CRE, and what Fifth Third–Comerica says about scale and credit resilience. Our LightBox CRE Activity Index jumped to 116.8, pointing to broader listings and steady diligence pipelines heading into Q4. Sector moves: deep office repricing in DTLA, selective Sun Belt trades, Silicon Valley land rushing to data-center use, Dollar Tree’s owner-user distribution center in Phoenix, and creative offerings to furloughed workers in DC. And Martha gives a special sign off that’s worth a listen. Don't miss out on the latest insights and data affecting the commercial real estate landscape.  03:13 Market Flips to Risk Off08:45 Job Market and Fed Minute Insights13:34 Liquidity and Lending Trends17:03 LightBox Data Dive and Market Activity21:37 Sector Stories: Office and Industrial Real Estate31:47 Creative Solutions in Retail and Economic AdaptationHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending October 3rd, the LightBox team explores a market that seems unfazed by negative news. Despite a federal shutdown freezing key data releases, equity markets marched higher, brushing off Powell’s “irrational exuberance” moment, weak private jobs data, and even two surprise bankruptcies in the auto sector. Manus Clancy, Martha Coacher, and Dianne Crocker ask: are these isolated cracks, or canaries in the coal mine that could spill over into CRE credit markets?The team also unpacks the September LightBox Activity Index, where environmental due diligence and appraisals held steady, while property listings surged to a new 2025 high, setting the stage for an active Q4. Environmental hot spots included Houston, New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Chicago, with one property type once again leading the way.On the CRE transaction front, San Francisco exemplifies a “best of times, worst of times” office story. Trophy tower 101 California is testing the market at $1B after a $75M repositioning, while other assets traded at 58–90% discounts from prior values. In Chicago, a 440-acre former steel site is being redeveloped into a quantum tech campus, while in New York, IKEA snapped up Nike’s former SoHo flagship for $213M. The episode closes with signs of the times: Palm Beach micro-units as small as 240 sq. ft. and Amazon’s $5 grocery line, reminders of affordability pressures reshaping living and retail.It’s a week of contradictions: buoyant deal activity, resilient CRE demand, but growing questions about whether markets are simply shrugging off too much.00:14 Market Resilience Amidst Uncertainty04:22 Bankruptcies and Credit Market Concerns09:07 Impact of Government Shutdown on Markets15:54 Lightbox Data Dive: Activity Index Insights23:37 Market Insights and Trends23:39 San Francisco's Office Market Dynamics28:42 Chicago's Quantum Campus Development30:36 IKEA's Strategic Expansion in Manhattan32:34 Micro Living and Affordable Housing TrendsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending September 26, the LightBox team unpacks a market full of data contradictions. Fed Chair Powell may have given equity investors a sentiment reset, but stocks remain near record highs with CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratios at 40, rivaling the dot-com bubble era.  Still, there’s concern over tariffs, labor softness, and massive AI-driven capex weighing on earnings. Consumers continue to spend on value items as FedEx’s 5% rise in U.S. package volumes shows, but the upcoming holiday season may reveal how much tariffs bite into retail margins.On the CRE front, August LightBox data showed 74% of deals traded at a gain, but nearly half of the discounted sales were offices, highlighted by a New York asset selling for $164M less than its last price. Multifamily markets delivered more mixed signals: Seattle saw a $400M portfolio trade and a $95M Class A sale at $450K per unit, while Atlanta posted both a $110M gain and a 26% loss on assets bought at the 2022 peak. In San Francisco, a $119M Mission District sale carried the headline: “AI jobs set to feed the market.”The team also dives into Beverly Hills, where a $205M office traded at $770 per square foot, proving Class A in prime locations can still command premium pricing, while Nashville’s boutique Bobby Hotel fetched $1M per key. They close on a sweet note with Tastykake’s Philly roots holding strong, even as Prologis markets its Navy Yard bakery site.It’s a week of contrasts, markets are frothy, yet fundamentals are uneven; CRE is steady, but price discovery continues.01:00 Market Overview & Fed Insights06:02 Tech Market Dynamics & Valuation Concerns09:14 Consumer Spending Trends & FedEx Earnings13:04 Housing Market Trends & New Home Sales15:59 Office Sector Challenges & Return to Work Policies19:02 CRE Transaction Insights23:47 Multifamily Market Activity & Notable Sales28:17 Beverly Hills Office Market Resilience & Hotel Sector HighlightsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending September 19, the LightBox team unpacks a market defined by mixed data signals. The Fed’s latest rate cut sent investors mixed messages, with Powell calling it a “risk management” move as job risks mount. Inflation data continues to contradict itself; retail sales are running hotter than expected, and holiday forecasts point to consumer resilience, yet labor market cracks and a housing market slump keep uncertainty high. Against this backdrop, Manus Clancy, Martha Coacher, and Dianne Crocker dig into LightBox’s August transaction tracker, where CRE activity stayed steady. Deals above $50 million were down just 5% from July’s peak but still 12% above the 2025 monthly average, with multifamily dominating and office transactions starting to pick up. Three out of four properties with sale history traded at a gain, underscoring that most assets are holding or building value even as price discovery continues. The team also goes behind the headlines of some noteworthy transactions: from San Francisco where the city’s flagship mall has lost 86% of its value since 2016; to a multifamily deal near Walnut Creek, Bart Station that traded 15% below 2022 pricing; and a surge in data center land values in Northern Virginia where power grid strain is looming. They close with a look at San Francisco’s distressed office sector, where the collapse of WeWork continues to ripple through valuations, leaving once-prime assets trading at steep discounts. It’s a “miso soup” market, cloudy but not opaque, where CRE continues to show cautious strength despite economic turbulence.00:17 Rate cut ripple effects03:05 Inflation, retail sales, and the “miso soup” market10:20 Labor market cracks and housing headwinds18:07 LightBox August transaction tracker24:44 San Francisco’s retail implosion29:06 Multifamily deal near Walnut Creek BART30:42 Data center land priced like gold in Northern Virginia32:45 San Francisco office distress and the WeWork falloutHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

The CRE Weekly Digest team is joined by Craig Benton, Director of Valuation Services at Synovus Financial, to unpack the state of commercial real estate from the appraisal and lending POV. The team kicks off with a scorecard on Craig’s 2024 CRE predictions, earning nearly straight A’s for calling sector-specific downturns, rate cuts, and the timing of deal volume recovery and shares where values are rising, stabilizing, or slipping as we head deeper into 2025. The conversation spans tariffs and construction costs, insurance trends, the wave (or lack thereof) of loan maturities, and why grocery-anchored retail remains a safe haven. Craig also dives into the rise of data centers as billion-dollar assets, the training challenges facing the appraisal profession, and how AI is reshaping valuation work. While bullish on CRE overall, Craig is clear-eyed about the long-term uncertainty facing office and weaker malls. It’s a wide-ranging, data-rich look at how valuations are shaping the next phase of the cycle.01:10 Grading Craig’s 2024 Predictions03:24 Market Pulse Check06:02 Inside the Appraisal Process10:28 Career Path & Appraisal Challenges14:16 Refis, Distress & the “Maturity Tsunami” That Never Came19:00 Asset Class Outlook: Retail resilience, multifamily shifts & the data center boom27:36 AI in Appraisals & What Market Value Really MeansHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

For the shortened week ending September 5, The CRE Weekly Digest team unpacks a turbulent few days in the markets. A federal court ruling that could unwind $500B in tariffs sent bond yields soaring, only to be reversed by disappointing labor data that pushed rates back down. With job openings now below the number of job seekers for the first time since COVID, investors are parsing signals of a labor market slowdown while equities stay frothy at record highs. Manus Clancy warns that the Fed may move slower than markets expect, leaving stocks vulnerable to disappointment. Dianne Crocker highlights the Fed’s Beige Book, which shows “50 shades of beige” across CRE but points to strength in data center construction and flight-to-quality office leasing. LightBox’s CRE Activity Index logged 104.8 in August, down from July’s highs but still above 100 for the seventh straight month. The team also breaks down a flurry of transactions: New York office towers trading at steep discounts, industrial portfolios commanding premium demand, and multifamily remaining the most active sector with $35B in Q2 sales. Plus: San Francisco’s AI-driven office rebound, McDonald’s rebooting value meals, and Manus’ annual (and very biased) Super Bowl prediction.LightBox Fundamentals: Transforming CRE Appraisals with AI-Powered Data Extraction Join us on Wednesday, September 10th at 2:00 p.m. ET for a 30-minute launch overview of LightBox Fundamentals—the new AI-powered platform that turns appraisal PDFs into structured, decision-ready data with zero manual effort.00:36 Market Reactions to Tariff Ruling and Jobs Data05:41 Bond vs. Equity Markets: A Deep Dive07:24 Federal Reserve Dynamics and Market Predictions09:48 CRE Market Trends and Insights25:08 Spotlight on Sales TransactionsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com