The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

Does the first U.S. trade deal signal an off-ramp to global trade tensions? Stocks surged on news of the UK agreement, but other indicators suggest the market’s ebullience may be front-running reality.  And the Fed knows it. Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker break down the signals that may impact CRE. From lighter cargo ships at the Port of Los Angeles to persistent uncertainty in corporate earnings, warning signs run counter to renewed optimism. The team flags a shift from April’s panic to May’s complacency, cautioning that investors may be underestimating looming supply disruptions and price hikes. Despite the volatility, CRE transaction activity continues—the latest LightBox CRE Activity Index rose to 109 in April, its highest reading in nearly three years. The pace has slowed, but momentum remains steady.  The team unpacks what’s behind the numbers, including valuations, broker activity, and some deal delays tied to equity gaps and shifting expectations. There’s plenty to dive into: Amazon and Nvidia are making bold office bets, Brookfield is raising billions to target distressed assets, and overall deal volume is holding surprisingly steady. And yes—if the coffee supply chain falters, Manus warns it won’t just rattle sentiment. It’ll be an anvil to the head.00:16 Trade Deal Optimism01:13 Market Sentiment Ahead of Reality?02:50 Impact of Tariffs and Supply Chain Disruptions09:04 Federal Reserve Decision: Groundhog Day?11:41 LightBox CRE Activity Index Up20:03 Noteworthy Sales and Green Shoots28:16 Financing and Proof of Liquidity37:13 Listener CommentsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Distress is building in the CRE market—and borrowers are running out of room as opportunistic investors prepare to jump in.  The power duo Tammy and David Goldfisher of The Henley Group join the LightBox team to break down what’s really happening behind the scenes with distressed commercial real estate assets, workouts, and the evolving capital markets landscape. With over 30 years of experience each in lending, advisory, and CMBS workouts, they specialize in helping owners navigate distressed assets and save their properties. They explain why we’re still early in the distress cycle, where borrowers are making critical mistakes, and how loan workouts today look very different from the COVID-era playbook. From the hidden risks in floating-rate multifamily loans to the long grind ahead for distressed office assets, they offer a clear-eyed view of where the cracks are widening—and what lenders want to see from borrowers now. Don't miss their take on why early engagement matters, where capital markets are surprising to the upside, and why this cycle will reward those who move early—not those who wait for a rescue.01:26 Current Market Conditions and Distress 02:09 Loan Maturity and Valuation Gaps 04:38 Lender and Borrower Dynamics 10:09 Valuation Disputes and Market Transparency 14:25 Office Sector Challenges and Bright Spots 18:51 Common Misconceptions in Special Servicing 21:11 Optimal Timing for Borrower Engagement 23:40 Market Forecast and Liquidity 30:02 Unexpected Turnaround Stories Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Markets may be uncertain, but the LightBox team is keeping it grounded—with some perspective and invoking the classic Gimme Shelter. As investors brace for tariff fallout, Manus, Dianne, and Martha break down the latest headline fatigue, a housing market under pressure, and the question of whether the lending engine will keep running. The team dives into a stalled $778M securitization deal, a funding $17B pipeline on pause, and why “a dead battery, not a blown engine,” might be the best metaphor for today’s economic environment. Plus, the LightBox Appraisal Index shows lenders are still engaged—at least for now. And with the NFL Draft underway, the team hosts the first-ever, all-in-good-fun LightBox CRE Investment Draft, naming key picks (grocery-anchored retail, multifamily, data centers), sleepers (strip malls, medical office), and a bust (luxury hotels). As for wild cards, the team has it covered with converted offices and a surprise bet on San Francisco’s AI alley. It’s a packed episode filled with data, debate, and some pretty sharp team names. Let the CRE Draft smack talk begin.02:57 Economic Data Roundup06:20 Housing Market Slump09:16 Assessing the Trade War Impact12:19 Lending Market Signals19:59 LightBox Data Dive and Appraisal Snapshot27:49 Loan Modifications Rise in March32:57 The NFL Draft: CRE Investment PicksHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

The timing for this conversation couldn’t have been better. Former Federal Reserve insider Tyler Wiggers gives us a break down on what the Fed is thinking right now about monetary policy especially in the wake of the tariff turmoil and market volatility.  He shares why rate cuts may be further off than the market (and the Trump administration) hopes, and how the Fed is tracking stress points in real time, including CRE loan concentrations and the surge of hot money. Buckle up for a good history lesson on comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis and CMBS TALF (Term Asset backed Securities Loan Facility) the Fed’s bold move in 2008-2009 to help unfreeze the credit markets. From tariff-fueled inflation pressures to the signals hidden in the 10-year yield and redemption queues, Tyler offers a clear-eyed view of where the risks are mounting. He also weighs in on a big strategic question: is this a moment to play offense or tighten up and defend? Don’t miss his take on what could be the canary in the coal mine for U.S. assets—and what Fed Chairman before Jay Powell really wants to see before the Fed pivots.02:45 Market Volatility & CRE Risk at Regional Banks08:10 Signals the Fed Watches (That You Might Not)13:00 Lending Strategies During Uncertainty16:45 Rate Cuts & the Tariff Effect23:30 The Rise of Private CRE Lending & Its Risks28:00 Structural vs. Cyclical Reset in CRE34:50 Behind the Scenes of CMBS TALF & GFC RecoveryHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Rick Jones, Founder and Principal of Jackstay Ventures LLC, joins the LightBox crew to unpack the latest capital markets chaos stirred up by post-tariff volatility and macro uncertainty.  The conversation spans the latest pulse on recession risk and lender behavior to the evolving role of warehouse lending and the long-awaited wave of distressed debt. Rick’s take? The CRE market is doing just fine—but there are some tells that he says will warn us when real trouble is afoot. Never one to shy away from knotty topics, Rick makes the case for considering CMBS conduit reinvention, and why the best time to rethink assumptions is when no one thinks it’s necessary. Always entertaining, Rick takes the team conversation to high-rise mausoleums, magical thinking, and the dangers of overusing adjectives. 01:58 The Impact of Volatility on Commercial Real Estate06:41 The Role of Non-Bank Lenders10:36 The Distressed Debt Market13:07 Warehouse Lending15:16 The Slow Burn of Market Distress21:03 Office Distress: The Race to Resolve22:04 Is it Time to Rethink CMBS Conduits?27:26 Magical Thinking in Market Analysis Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

The team breaks down what Manus calls “tariffs on steroids” and why the impact is more opaque than anything we’ve seen before. With investors reacting to tariffs with a stock sell-off and a flight to the safety of Treasurys, the discussion focuses on the potential impact to commercial real estate (CRE).  Is CRE the new safe harbor? The LightBox CRE Activity Index suggests yes—for now. March saw its highest reading since September 2022, driven by gains in listings, appraisals, and site assessments. But even in this volatile market, there will be winners and losers. The team shares their glass-half-full and glass-half-empty takes on what’s next, asking the big question: Will April showers bring May flowers for CRE—or more market storms? And while investors search for safe alternatives, one brand is betting on comfort food. Waffle House is launching delivery at 500 locations, prompting the team to wonder: are waffles tariff-proof? Probably. As for sticky tables and hangovers—that’s another story.01:59 The Tariff Fallout Bigger and Broader than Expected07:58 Is Retail at Ground Zero for Tariff Impact?10:37 LightBox CRE Activity Index Insights14:34 Commercial Real Estate as a Safe Harbor?21:20 Positive Signs in CRE MarketHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

This week the LightBox podcast team talks with Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) about the CRE debt market. Together, they discuss the current landscape of the commercial real estate finance market, highlighting a sharp rebound in market sentiment and CMBS issuance volumes. And, despite the robust levels of new issuance, lenders are proceeding with a disciplined approach to underwriting deals. Lisa shares insights into the performance of key asset classes and puts some important perspective on negative media headlines. The discussion also covers policy and regulation and the potential impact of stagflation on CRE finance, and the growing emphasis on affordable housing initiatives. And, Lisa closes with her thoughts about reasons for optimism in today’s market.01:19 Current State of the CRE Finance Market03:07 Market Sentiment and Robust Issuance Volume05:49 Challenges in the Office Sector10:04 Stagflation and Economic Concerns17:29 CREFC’s Engagement with Policy Makers20:47 Role of CRE CLOs for Transitional CRE Assets25:41 Reasons for Optimism in the MarketHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

A round of mixed economic data took a back seat to the investor focus on the Federal Reserve meeting. With the expected no change on interest rates, the focus was on Chairman Powell’s outlook, inflation forecasts – (yes, he said transitory again), and how the stock market corrections are shaping investor sentiment. The team also unpacks new data about the impact of tariffs, especially on consumer confidence and housing. In the commercial real estate sector, it's a dive into the good, bad, and ugly covering major office lease renewals, office-to-residential conversions, and even federal land development proposals. But with all the recent market madness, CRE investors seem to stay the course with February’s CRE big deals and new development projects in the LightBox Data Dive, highlighting the CRE market’s liquidity. Listen to the end to hear the team’s own March Madness picks!00:24 Fed Comforter and Chief? 02:44 Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment 04:51 Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty 12:15 Housing Market & Affordability Trends 19:15 LightBox Data Dive: Big Deal Monitor  21:55 Office: The Good, Bad and Ugly  37:08 NCAA March Madness Picks Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Markets whipsawed this week against a barrage of policy and economic headlines. Inflation cooled more than expected, which was welcome news, but investors grappled with trade war escalations sparking recession fears and a sharp selloff in equities. Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down how macro uncertainty is shaping investor sentiment, from rising bond yields to heightened volatility in the stock market. Despite the turbulence, the LightBox CRE Activity Index surged 19% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year, signaling continued strength in commercial real estate transactions. The team also unpacks the latest CMBS issuance surge, what Delta’s earnings reveal about business travel pullbacks, and why CRE investors remain focused on deal flow even as the economy wobbles. With CRE sentiment still resilient, the question remains: is this just a market correction, or are we edging closer to a recession? 04:26 Interest Rates and Market Sentiment 09:51 Uncertainty in Tariffs and Government Shutdown 12:54 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Surges 15:33 CRE Lending Trends and Market Sentiment 22:19 Navigating the CMBS Landscape 25:48 More Green Shoots in the Office Market 28:57 San Francisco Shows Positive Signs 31:19 Reflections on the Pandemic's Impact Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

This week, experts dissect the chaos of tariff turbulence and its implications for commercial real estate, likening the market to a wild rafting trip. There's a surprising surge in mortgage applications as buyers score lower rates. Manhattan sees a rush in leasing activity, while savvy investors are acquiring distressed assets. They dive into the growing CRE activity index, and highlight appealing new property listings. To lighten the mood, the team humorously chats about the eye-catching Kim Kardashian balloon in Times Square, discussing its influence on retail.