The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

In a short holiday week packed with headlines, markets saw a rare “melt-up” as long-term Treasury yields dipped below 4.01%, inflation data cooled, and odds of a December Fed rate cut jumped to 70%. Beneath the optimism, however, the affordability narrative out of Washington, softening job growth, and private-equity debt risks are raising new questions. Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dial into what it all means for CRE lending, liquidity, and spreads—and whether widening risk premiums could ripple through commercial real estate. The discussion also spotlights LightBox Q3 data showing lender-driven appraisal activity at a three-year high, solid bank profits, and bullish CMBS forecasts heading into 2026. Plus, the team weighs in on New York City’s controversial COPA proposal, Google’s big bet on the Lone Star state, and a pair of office-to-resi conversions set to reshape multifamily markets in Manhattan and Chicago.00:38 Market Highlights and Economic Indicators04:09 Affordability and Economic Concerns07:26 Private Equity and CRE Lending Insights13:20 CRE Lending and Market Dynamics17:57 Policy and Legislation Impacting CRE23:25 Data Centers and Tech Investments24:48 Office Conversions and Market TrendsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Markets wobbled this week as investors digested a mix of stock selloffs, cautious consumer data, and jobs numbers that left the Fed “flying blind” heading into December. Confidence is uneven, with big-box retailers sending conflicting signals as Home Depot and Target trimmed outlooks while Walmart beat expectations. Homebuilder sentiment also remains subdued after nearly two years of decline. In this episode of The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down the week’s crosscurrents and what they reveal about capital markets and commercial real estate. From early signs of stability in lending and select office assets to surprising risks beneath Los Angeles development sites, the conversation offers a grounded view of where confidence is returning and where caution still rules. A volatile week, a divided market, and insights you will not find in the headlines. Tune in to hear how Manus and Dianne are reading the signals as the year winds down. 00:20 Market Jitters and Economic Indicators09:22 Data Dive: Oil Wells in LA17:32 Office Sector Trends and Transactions27:54 Student Housing Portfolio Acquisition30:18 Thanksgiving Pie PreferencesHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

As the six-week federal shutdown finally comes to an end, markets exhaled from Wall Street to Main Street, easing travel worries ahead of Thanksgiving. But with October’s official jobs and inflation reports still on hold, visibility remains limited as the next Fed meeting approaches. What does that uncertainty mean for commercial real estate, and how confident is the market heading into year-end? This week, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down the post-shutdown landscape, from the shifting odds of a December rate cut to emerging signs of strength in CRE lending and deal activity. They unpack LightBox data showing steady momentum in October’s transactions, bright spots in bank lending as capital flows normalize, and whether that optimism can hold amid layoffs and softening business confidence. The discussion also highlights key industry stories, including Vornado and Rudin’s plan for a two-million-square-foot Park Avenue tower and a trio of data center deals in Northern Virginia and Phoenix that showcase the strength of digital infrastructure demand. The episode closes on a thoughtful Veterans Day note, spotlighting Cushman & Wakefield’s expanded hiring initiative for veterans and how firms are turning gratitude into opportunity.A week of contrasts: steady transactions, strong bank lending, a dearth of economic data, and a market balancing caution with confidence. Tune in to hear the team's take on what it all means as 2025 draws to a close.00:39 Economic Indicators and Job Market Concerns06:20 AI's Impact on Employment and Corporate Layoff10:45 Commercial Real Estate Deal Trends15:10 Banking Reports and Lending Confidence21:28 Development Projects and Market Confidence24:30 Data Center Market Dynamics31:11 Hotel Market Trends and ValuationsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Everyone in New York is wondering the same thing: what will Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s win mean for the city—and for commercial real estate? Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dig into how his campaign promises on affordable housing, rent freezes, and tax hikes could reshape investor sentiment and property values in the country’s largest CRE market. They also discuss a week filled with contradictions, from job data that exceeded expectations to major companies announcing new rounds of layoffs, along with a federal government shutdown now reaching record length. Dianne shares highlights from the Real Estate Finance Association’s Connecticut event featuring Manulife’s Victor Calanog, who offered a surprisingly upbeat message: “CRE is back-ish.” That tone aligns with LightBox data showing October’s CRE Activity Index holding steady despite persistent headwinds. Also in focus are a $560 million Miami solar-integrated condo tower, Manhattan’s leasing surge, and a record $7.2 billion medical office portfolio deal. The episode closes with a Veterans Day “slice of life” and an unexpected question: is the Pentagon considering leasing land at Camp Pendleton?01:06 New York City's New Mayor: Implications for CRE06:21 Economic Data and Market Trends11:07 Positive Developments in CRE16:46 Labor Market Insights and Layoffs20:10 Recent Deals and Market Activity31:55 Veterans Day and Community ImpactHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

As the Fed trimmed rates a second time this week after a cooler-than-expected CPI report, trade tensions between the U.S. and China appeared to ease, the federal shutdown entered its second month, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dialed into what it all means for CRE. With Chair Powell’s caution that a December cut isn’t guaranteed, major corporate layoffs at Amazon, GM, and Paramount sharpened concerns that the job market is losing steam, giving the Fed more cover for additional rate relief. The episode also touched on how CRE lenders and appraisals are responding to AI and the risks of leaning too heavily on automated analysis without professional judgment.Manus and Dianne also dive into the week’s standout deals, from a promising $40M Chicago office-to-data center conversion to South Florida’s multifamily resurgence, plus LightBox platform data showing a dramatic 30% increase in nondisclosure agreements filed on property listings.  The market’s mood as we enter the second month of Q4? Confident, but not complacent.01:09 Market Highlights and Economic Updates03:58 Corporate Layoffs and Labor Market Trends08:58 The Impact of AI on Employment11:00 Hurricane Melissa and Climate Risk16:30 Future Outlook for Commercial Real Estate17:47 Data Dive: Investor Interest and NDAs23:02 Development Deals and Multifamily InvestmentsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Commercial real estate isn’t flinching. In this week’s LightBox CRE Weekly Digest, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down a market showing surprising steadiness as the federal shutdown drags on and another Fed rate decision looms. They dig into what’s really behind the “bad loan” headlines and reveal what the latest LightBox Environmental Due Diligence Market Advisory Council survey suggests about Q4 momentum (the rating might surprise you). Plus: a $2B LA warehouse transformation, record NYC office leasing led by finance and tech, a standout office-to-resi success, and retail capital still flowing from Annapolis to the West Coast. The episode wraps with a look at what’s keeping deals moving, and a personal milestone from Manus you won’t want to miss. 02:10 Market Snapshot: Shutdown & Earnings05:40 Tariffs, Trade Tensions & Corporate Confidence09:00 Banking Sector & Fraud Watch13:00 CRE Sentiment Turns Positive17:30 Due Diligence & Lending Activity24:00 NYC & LA: CRE Revival Stories28:30 Office-to-Resi Success & Housing Momentum33:30 Retail Strength & Selective Investor DemandHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Tariff shock, federal data blackout, and CRE dealmaking…still strengthening. This week, a new 100%-tariff threat on China could rejigger aluminum/steel inputs that already jumped 50%+ in Cushman & Wakefield’s math, and the federal shutdown kept key economic releases in the dark. Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down what it all means on the ground: how tariffs could slow new development (and support pricing), encouraging signs from big banks, and the great office reset in full swing. See the Midtown tower that sold at 43% below its 2007 mark. We also hit the $40B BlackRock–NVIDIA data-center pact, sturdier Q3 bank prints, and why multifamily is crowding institutional pipelines. Plus, a $660M loan modification negotiated by Iron Hound Management on a national office/industrial portfolio highlights how uncertainty around GSA lease risk is complicating refis. Bottom line: volatility may be rising, but CRE isn’t flinching. Investors remain disciplined and focused on deals that pencil. 03:30 Impact of Tariffs on Construction and CRE08:20 Bank Earnings and Corporate Failures13:13 Commercial Real Estate Trends17:39 Federal Shutdown Effects on CRE21:54 Leases and Transactions in the Office Segment26:38 Industrial Sector Boom31:26 Luxury Developments and Market DynamicsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

As we finish week two of the federal shutdown, markets shifted into risk-off mode while investors fly without official data. The team unpacks the Fed’s September minutes (cuts likely, cadence uncertain), lean on alternative signals (Carlyle’s real-time payrolls), and explains why the labor outlook is fragile. In CRE capital markets, the team breaks down how continuation vehicles are bridging liquidity, why loan modifications are up sharply yet still a small share of bank CRE, and what Fifth Third–Comerica says about scale and credit resilience. Our LightBox CRE Activity Index jumped to 116.8, pointing to broader listings and steady diligence pipelines heading into Q4. Sector moves: deep office repricing in DTLA, selective Sun Belt trades, Silicon Valley land rushing to data-center use, Dollar Tree’s owner-user distribution center in Phoenix, and creative offerings to furloughed workers in DC. And Martha gives a special sign off that’s worth a listen. Don't miss out on the latest insights and data affecting the commercial real estate landscape.  03:13 Market Flips to Risk Off08:45 Job Market and Fed Minute Insights13:34 Liquidity and Lending Trends17:03 LightBox Data Dive and Market Activity21:37 Sector Stories: Office and Industrial Real Estate31:47 Creative Solutions in Retail and Economic AdaptationHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending October 3rd, the LightBox team explores a market that seems unfazed by negative news. Despite a federal shutdown freezing key data releases, equity markets marched higher, brushing off Powell’s “irrational exuberance” moment, weak private jobs data, and even two surprise bankruptcies in the auto sector. Manus Clancy, Martha Coacher, and Dianne Crocker ask: are these isolated cracks, or canaries in the coal mine that could spill over into CRE credit markets?The team also unpacks the September LightBox Activity Index, where environmental due diligence and appraisals held steady, while property listings surged to a new 2025 high, setting the stage for an active Q4. Environmental hot spots included Houston, New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Chicago, with one property type once again leading the way.On the CRE transaction front, San Francisco exemplifies a “best of times, worst of times” office story. Trophy tower 101 California is testing the market at $1B after a $75M repositioning, while other assets traded at 58–90% discounts from prior values. In Chicago, a 440-acre former steel site is being redeveloped into a quantum tech campus, while in New York, IKEA snapped up Nike’s former SoHo flagship for $213M. The episode closes with signs of the times: Palm Beach micro-units as small as 240 sq. ft. and Amazon’s $5 grocery line, reminders of affordability pressures reshaping living and retail.It’s a week of contradictions: buoyant deal activity, resilient CRE demand, but growing questions about whether markets are simply shrugging off too much.00:14 Market Resilience Amidst Uncertainty04:22 Bankruptcies and Credit Market Concerns09:07 Impact of Government Shutdown on Markets15:54 Lightbox Data Dive: Activity Index Insights23:37 Market Insights and Trends23:39 San Francisco's Office Market Dynamics28:42 Chicago's Quantum Campus Development30:36 IKEA's Strategic Expansion in Manhattan32:34 Micro Living and Affordable Housing TrendsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending September 26, the LightBox team unpacks a market full of data contradictions. Fed Chair Powell may have given equity investors a sentiment reset, but stocks remain near record highs with CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratios at 40, rivaling the dot-com bubble era.  Still, there’s concern over tariffs, labor softness, and massive AI-driven capex weighing on earnings. Consumers continue to spend on value items as FedEx’s 5% rise in U.S. package volumes shows, but the upcoming holiday season may reveal how much tariffs bite into retail margins.On the CRE front, August LightBox data showed 74% of deals traded at a gain, but nearly half of the discounted sales were offices, highlighted by a New York asset selling for $164M less than its last price. Multifamily markets delivered more mixed signals: Seattle saw a $400M portfolio trade and a $95M Class A sale at $450K per unit, while Atlanta posted both a $110M gain and a 26% loss on assets bought at the 2022 peak. In San Francisco, a $119M Mission District sale carried the headline: “AI jobs set to feed the market.”The team also dives into Beverly Hills, where a $205M office traded at $770 per square foot, proving Class A in prime locations can still command premium pricing, while Nashville’s boutique Bobby Hotel fetched $1M per key. They close on a sweet note with Tastykake’s Philly roots holding strong, even as Prologis markets its Navy Yard bakery site.It’s a week of contrasts, markets are frothy, yet fundamentals are uneven; CRE is steady, but price discovery continues.01:00 Market Overview & Fed Insights06:02 Tech Market Dynamics & Valuation Concerns09:14 Consumer Spending Trends & FedEx Earnings13:04 Housing Market Trends & New Home Sales15:59 Office Sector Challenges & Return to Work Policies19:02 CRE Transaction Insights23:47 Multifamily Market Activity & Notable Sales28:17 Beverly Hills Office Market Resilience & Hotel Sector HighlightsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com