Markets Dodge DC Drama – Inflation Muted, Bank Earnings Strong, and Industrial Bets Rise

This week’s slate of economic data left pundits divided even as investors cheered on rising markets. Retail sales surprised to the upside, inflation was muted, and bank earnings beat forecasts. However, deeper trends raise caution: tariff receipts are surging, homebuilders are cutting prices, and the Trump–Powell standoff briefly rattled equity and bond markets.

Manus remains bullish yet uneasy, warning that someone is absorbing billions in monthly tariff costs, and the bill may soon come due. Dianne points to the mixed results of the LightBox sentiment survey and leans on Jamie Dimon’s line this quarter: “forecasting is a waste of time.”

The LightBox Appraisal Index rose in Q2 on retail and industrial demand, but cost uncertainty still looms. Industrial sector activity continued with big bets from Brookfield, Prologis, and Blackstone. Office continues to struggle evidenced by a round of transactions with Portland’s “Big Pink” tower selling at an 88% haircut. And outside the CRE market, the team weighs in on reports of Delta's AI-powered ticket pricing. What are your thoughts?

We want your take. LightBox is about to close the Midyear 2025 CRE Market Survey and we want to hear from experts like you across valuation, due diligence, lending, investment, and brokerage. We’re exploring your reflections on the first half of 2025 and your outlook for the months ahead. Click here to take the survey >

The survey closes EOD Friday, July 18th, and we’ll be sharing the results shortly thereafter.

02:51 Tariffs and Inflation Impact

09:01 Trump-Powell Tensions

12:00 LightBox Lender Appraisal Insights

14:59 Big Transactions in Industrial Real Estate

18:02 Office Market Challenges

20:46 Infrastructure Plays for Data Centers

24:01 Retail to Industrial Transformations

26:49 The AI Price is Right?

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.

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