The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

As we finish week two of the federal shutdown, markets shifted into risk-off mode while investors fly without official data. The team unpacks the Fed’s September minutes (cuts likely, cadence uncertain), lean on alternative signals (Carlyle’s real-time payrolls), and explains why the labor outlook is fragile. In CRE capital markets, the team breaks down how continuation vehicles are bridging liquidity, why loan modifications are up sharply yet still a small share of bank CRE, and what Fifth Third–Comerica says about scale and credit resilience. Our LightBox CRE Activity Index jumped to 116.8, pointing to broader listings and steady diligence pipelines heading into Q4. Sector moves: deep office repricing in DTLA, selective Sun Belt trades, Silicon Valley land rushing to data-center use, Dollar Tree’s owner-user distribution center in Phoenix, and creative offerings to furloughed workers in DC. And Martha gives a special sign off that’s worth a listen. Don't miss out on the latest insights and data affecting the commercial real estate landscape.  03:13 Market Flips to Risk Off08:45 Job Market and Fed Minute Insights13:34 Liquidity and Lending Trends17:03 LightBox Data Dive and Market Activity21:37 Sector Stories: Office and Industrial Real Estate31:47 Creative Solutions in Retail and Economic AdaptationHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending October 3rd, the LightBox team explores a market that seems unfazed by negative news. Despite a federal shutdown freezing key data releases, equity markets marched higher, brushing off Powell’s “irrational exuberance” moment, weak private jobs data, and even two surprise bankruptcies in the auto sector. Manus Clancy, Martha Coacher, and Dianne Crocker ask: are these isolated cracks, or canaries in the coal mine that could spill over into CRE credit markets?The team also unpacks the September LightBox Activity Index, where environmental due diligence and appraisals held steady, while property listings surged to a new 2025 high, setting the stage for an active Q4. Environmental hot spots included Houston, New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Chicago, with one property type once again leading the way.On the CRE transaction front, San Francisco exemplifies a “best of times, worst of times” office story. Trophy tower 101 California is testing the market at $1B after a $75M repositioning, while other assets traded at 58–90% discounts from prior values. In Chicago, a 440-acre former steel site is being redeveloped into a quantum tech campus, while in New York, IKEA snapped up Nike’s former SoHo flagship for $213M. The episode closes with signs of the times: Palm Beach micro-units as small as 240 sq. ft. and Amazon’s $5 grocery line, reminders of affordability pressures reshaping living and retail.It’s a week of contradictions: buoyant deal activity, resilient CRE demand, but growing questions about whether markets are simply shrugging off too much.00:14 Market Resilience Amidst Uncertainty04:22 Bankruptcies and Credit Market Concerns09:07 Impact of Government Shutdown on Markets15:54 Lightbox Data Dive: Activity Index Insights23:37 Market Insights and Trends23:39 San Francisco's Office Market Dynamics28:42 Chicago's Quantum Campus Development30:36 IKEA's Strategic Expansion in Manhattan32:34 Micro Living and Affordable Housing TrendsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending September 26, the LightBox team unpacks a market full of data contradictions. Fed Chair Powell may have given equity investors a sentiment reset, but stocks remain near record highs with CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratios at 40, rivaling the dot-com bubble era.  Still, there’s concern over tariffs, labor softness, and massive AI-driven capex weighing on earnings. Consumers continue to spend on value items as FedEx’s 5% rise in U.S. package volumes shows, but the upcoming holiday season may reveal how much tariffs bite into retail margins.On the CRE front, August LightBox data showed 74% of deals traded at a gain, but nearly half of the discounted sales were offices, highlighted by a New York asset selling for $164M less than its last price. Multifamily markets delivered more mixed signals: Seattle saw a $400M portfolio trade and a $95M Class A sale at $450K per unit, while Atlanta posted both a $110M gain and a 26% loss on assets bought at the 2022 peak. In San Francisco, a $119M Mission District sale carried the headline: “AI jobs set to feed the market.”The team also dives into Beverly Hills, where a $205M office traded at $770 per square foot, proving Class A in prime locations can still command premium pricing, while Nashville’s boutique Bobby Hotel fetched $1M per key. They close on a sweet note with Tastykake’s Philly roots holding strong, even as Prologis markets its Navy Yard bakery site.It’s a week of contrasts, markets are frothy, yet fundamentals are uneven; CRE is steady, but price discovery continues.01:00 Market Overview & Fed Insights06:02 Tech Market Dynamics & Valuation Concerns09:14 Consumer Spending Trends & FedEx Earnings13:04 Housing Market Trends & New Home Sales15:59 Office Sector Challenges & Return to Work Policies19:02 CRE Transaction Insights23:47 Multifamily Market Activity & Notable Sales28:17 Beverly Hills Office Market Resilience & Hotel Sector HighlightsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending September 19, the LightBox team unpacks a market defined by mixed data signals. The Fed’s latest rate cut sent investors mixed messages, with Powell calling it a “risk management” move as job risks mount. Inflation data continues to contradict itself; retail sales are running hotter than expected, and holiday forecasts point to consumer resilience, yet labor market cracks and a housing market slump keep uncertainty high. Against this backdrop, Manus Clancy, Martha Coacher, and Dianne Crocker dig into LightBox’s August transaction tracker, where CRE activity stayed steady. Deals above $50 million were down just 5% from July’s peak but still 12% above the 2025 monthly average, with multifamily dominating and office transactions starting to pick up. Three out of four properties with sale history traded at a gain, underscoring that most assets are holding or building value even as price discovery continues. The team also goes behind the headlines of some noteworthy transactions: from San Francisco where the city’s flagship mall has lost 86% of its value since 2016; to a multifamily deal near Walnut Creek, Bart Station that traded 15% below 2022 pricing; and a surge in data center land values in Northern Virginia where power grid strain is looming. They close with a look at San Francisco’s distressed office sector, where the collapse of WeWork continues to ripple through valuations, leaving once-prime assets trading at steep discounts. It’s a “miso soup” market, cloudy but not opaque, where CRE continues to show cautious strength despite economic turbulence.00:17 Rate cut ripple effects03:05 Inflation, retail sales, and the “miso soup” market10:20 Labor market cracks and housing headwinds18:07 LightBox August transaction tracker24:44 San Francisco’s retail implosion29:06 Multifamily deal near Walnut Creek BART30:42 Data center land priced like gold in Northern Virginia32:45 San Francisco office distress and the WeWork falloutHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

The CRE Weekly Digest team is joined by Craig Benton, Director of Valuation Services at Synovus Financial, to unpack the state of commercial real estate from the appraisal and lending POV. The team kicks off with a scorecard on Craig’s 2024 CRE predictions, earning nearly straight A’s for calling sector-specific downturns, rate cuts, and the timing of deal volume recovery and shares where values are rising, stabilizing, or slipping as we head deeper into 2025. The conversation spans tariffs and construction costs, insurance trends, the wave (or lack thereof) of loan maturities, and why grocery-anchored retail remains a safe haven. Craig also dives into the rise of data centers as billion-dollar assets, the training challenges facing the appraisal profession, and how AI is reshaping valuation work. While bullish on CRE overall, Craig is clear-eyed about the long-term uncertainty facing office and weaker malls. It’s a wide-ranging, data-rich look at how valuations are shaping the next phase of the cycle.01:10 Grading Craig’s 2024 Predictions03:24 Market Pulse Check06:02 Inside the Appraisal Process10:28 Career Path & Appraisal Challenges14:16 Refis, Distress & the “Maturity Tsunami” That Never Came19:00 Asset Class Outlook: Retail resilience, multifamily shifts & the data center boom27:36 AI in Appraisals & What Market Value Really MeansHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

For the shortened week ending September 5, The CRE Weekly Digest team unpacks a turbulent few days in the markets. A federal court ruling that could unwind $500B in tariffs sent bond yields soaring, only to be reversed by disappointing labor data that pushed rates back down. With job openings now below the number of job seekers for the first time since COVID, investors are parsing signals of a labor market slowdown while equities stay frothy at record highs. Manus Clancy warns that the Fed may move slower than markets expect, leaving stocks vulnerable to disappointment. Dianne Crocker highlights the Fed’s Beige Book, which shows “50 shades of beige” across CRE but points to strength in data center construction and flight-to-quality office leasing. LightBox’s CRE Activity Index logged 104.8 in August, down from July’s highs but still above 100 for the seventh straight month. The team also breaks down a flurry of transactions: New York office towers trading at steep discounts, industrial portfolios commanding premium demand, and multifamily remaining the most active sector with $35B in Q2 sales. Plus: San Francisco’s AI-driven office rebound, McDonald’s rebooting value meals, and Manus’ annual (and very biased) Super Bowl prediction.LightBox Fundamentals: Transforming CRE Appraisals with AI-Powered Data Extraction Join us on Wednesday, September 10th at 2:00 p.m. ET for a 30-minute launch overview of LightBox Fundamentals—the new AI-powered platform that turns appraisal PDFs into structured, decision-ready data with zero manual effort.00:36 Market Reactions to Tariff Ruling and Jobs Data05:41 Bond vs. Equity Markets: A Deep Dive07:24 Federal Reserve Dynamics and Market Predictions09:48 CRE Market Trends and Insights25:08 Spotlight on Sales TransactionsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

CMBS issuance has roared back, yet distress, especially in office keeps building. In this episode, Michael Haas, founder & CEO of Credit IQ, joins us to separate signal from noise across CMBS and CRE CLOs. We dig into what the data shows right now, why CMBS has been winning share from the GSEs, and how five-year structures and bank scrutiny are shaping borrower behavior. Mike explains his firm’s definition of distress (special servicing and/or delinquency), the flight-to-quality dynamic in office, and the early warning triggers their team watches: occupancy drops, DSCR trends, tenant downsizes, and debt-yield thresholds. We also unpack details behind headline cases like Worldwide Plaza and Times Square retail, why small rate cuts won’t fix maturity walls, and where resolutions are getting stuck. The team wraps with a positive scenario that would mark a true market turning point.www.lightboxre.com

David Auerbach, Chief Investment Officer at Hoya Capital Real Estate, joins hosts Manus Clancy and Martha Coacher for a deep dive into the misunderstood world of REITs. Often dismissed as “boring” or overlooked next to market movers like Apple, Nvidia, or even crypto, REITs are in fact powering much of the CRE ecosystem. Auerbach explains why misconceptions, like REITs being purely interest rate sensitive, miss the bigger picture of tenant contracts, long-term income streams, and transparency that other real estate investors should watch.The conversation spans REIT performance since the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle began in 2022 (underperforming the S&P by 50%), the surprising rebound in senior housing, the structural demand for rentals amid unaffordable home prices, and why data centers and towers now make up 25% of REIT indexes while office is just 4%. Auerbach also outlines the “graduating class” of REITs, from the Ivy-bound aristocrats to the troublemakers in the penalty box, and why active management matters for spotting warning signs.Listeners will hear why Berkshire Hathaway’s quiet moves into REITs matter and which market signals Auerbach watches (hint: the 10-year Treasury vs. Fed Funds). Packed with insights, data, and forward-looking signals, this episode is essential listening for anyone navigating CRE investing in a volatile market.00:55 Understanding REITs in CRE04:14Macro Shifts & REIT Resilience07:44 Data Centers, Housing & Everyday Use11:00 Spotting Opportunities in REIT Trends16:45 Active Management Levers: Dividends & Leverage28:26 Market Signals and Future OutlookHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

For the week ending August 15, The CRE Weekly Digest team digs into a tale of two markets. Hot wholesale inflation data dampened hopes for a jumbo September rate cut, but investors are still more focused on the prospect of cheaper money than the persistence of higher prices. Manus Clancy warns that U.S. equities are looking dangerously complacent – with historically high P/E ratios, low volatility, and frothy valuations – but sees a steadier hand in commercial real estate. LightBox transaction data shows $160B in 2025 deals to date, with July posting a 10% jump in deals over $50M, and a broad, sober buyer pool keeping valuations grounded. Dianne Crocker spotlights that 54% of office deals are trading at a discount, while multifamily remains the most in-demand listing type. The team also covers steep Pasadena office price cuts, San Francisco hotel distress, and the flow of plentiful (often private equity) capital into even riskier CRE projects. Plus: Disney-branded housing, relocation cash incentives from unexpected cities, and why insurance costs could be CRE’s biggest near-term headwind.00:18 Market Complacency and Inflation Concerns 01:57 Frothy Equities vs. Steady CRE Markets 03:47 CRE Market Activity and Measured Optimism 09:08 LightBox Data Dive: July Transactions 17:46 Noteworthy Transactions and Market Trends 29:19 Upcoming Webinar and Disney “Storyliving” Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

We welcome back Ryan Severino, Managing Director, Chief Economist and Head of Research at BGO, for a sweeping conversation on the macroeconomic forces shaping commercial real estate in the back half of 2025. Fresh off being named one of PERE’s 100 most influential figures in global real estate, Ryan joins the LightBox team to unpack everything from the timing of potential rate cuts and labor market risks to the rise of AI-driven forecasting and why multifamily may be the ultimate outperformer in a high-tariff environment.With his signature contrarian perspective, Ryan explains why he correctly predicted fewer, later rate cuts this year and why he sees more downside risk in the labor market than runaway inflation. He unpacks how trade policy shifts and tariff shocks are distorting Fed strategy, creating "triple whammy" risks for consumers, and slowing – but not halting – CRE recovery. You'll also hear why his firm, BGO is doubling down on AI-powered forecasting, how Gen Z is reshaping retail demand, and why office might finally be turning a corner.From real-time data revisions to trillion-point predictive models, this episode is packed with timely insights on what's working, what’s wobbly, and what lies ahead for CRE. Don’t miss Ryan’s bold predictions and the one indicator he’s watching most closely.01:29 Economic Predictions and Market Analysis03:11 Impact of Recent Job Reports06:08 Fed's Dual Mandate and Rate Cuts17:52 Commercial Real Estate Market Sentiment24:29 Sector-Specific Insights: Multifamily, Office, Industrial, and Retail35:42 The Role of Technology in ForecastingHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com