The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

This week the LightBox podcast team talks with Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) about the CRE debt market. Together, they discuss the current landscape of the commercial real estate finance market, highlighting a sharp rebound in market sentiment and CMBS issuance volumes. And, despite the robust levels of new issuance, lenders are proceeding with a disciplined approach to underwriting deals. Lisa shares insights into the performance of key asset classes and puts some important perspective on negative media headlines. The discussion also covers policy and regulation and the potential impact of stagflation on CRE finance, and the growing emphasis on affordable housing initiatives. And, Lisa closes with her thoughts about reasons for optimism in today’s market.01:19 Current State of the CRE Finance Market03:07 Market Sentiment and Robust Issuance Volume05:49 Challenges in the Office Sector10:04 Stagflation and Economic Concerns17:29 CREFC’s Engagement with Policy Makers20:47 Role of CRE CLOs for Transitional CRE Assets25:41 Reasons for Optimism in the MarketHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

A round of mixed economic data took a back seat to the investor focus on the Federal Reserve meeting. With the expected no change on interest rates, the focus was on Chairman Powell’s outlook, inflation forecasts – (yes, he said transitory again), and how the stock market corrections are shaping investor sentiment. The team also unpacks new data about the impact of tariffs, especially on consumer confidence and housing. In the commercial real estate sector, it's a dive into the good, bad, and ugly covering major office lease renewals, office-to-residential conversions, and even federal land development proposals. But with all the recent market madness, CRE investors seem to stay the course with February’s CRE big deals and new development projects in the LightBox Data Dive, highlighting the CRE market’s liquidity. Listen to the end to hear the team’s own March Madness picks!00:24 Fed Comforter and Chief? 02:44 Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment 04:51 Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty 12:15 Housing Market & Affordability Trends 19:15 LightBox Data Dive: Big Deal Monitor  21:55 Office: The Good, Bad and Ugly  37:08 NCAA March Madness Picks Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Markets whipsawed this week against a barrage of policy and economic headlines. Inflation cooled more than expected, which was welcome news, but investors grappled with trade war escalations sparking recession fears and a sharp selloff in equities. Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down how macro uncertainty is shaping investor sentiment, from rising bond yields to heightened volatility in the stock market. Despite the turbulence, the LightBox CRE Activity Index surged 19% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year, signaling continued strength in commercial real estate transactions. The team also unpacks the latest CMBS issuance surge, what Delta’s earnings reveal about business travel pullbacks, and why CRE investors remain focused on deal flow even as the economy wobbles. With CRE sentiment still resilient, the question remains: is this just a market correction, or are we edging closer to a recession? 04:26 Interest Rates and Market Sentiment 09:51 Uncertainty in Tariffs and Government Shutdown 12:54 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Surges 15:33 CRE Lending Trends and Market Sentiment 22:19 Navigating the CMBS Landscape 25:48 More Green Shoots in the Office Market 28:57 San Francisco Shows Positive Signs 31:19 Reflections on the Pandemic's Impact Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

This week, experts dissect the chaos of tariff turbulence and its implications for commercial real estate, likening the market to a wild rafting trip. There's a surprising surge in mortgage applications as buyers score lower rates. Manhattan sees a rush in leasing activity, while savvy investors are acquiring distressed assets. They dive into the growing CRE activity index, and highlight appealing new property listings. To lighten the mood, the team humorously chats about the eye-catching Kim Kardashian balloon in Times Square, discussing its influence on retail.

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down the latest twists that impacted the commercial real estate market this week, from bond yields and the flipping yield curve to the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest pending home sales reading in over 25 years—all signaling a bumpy road ahead. The team asks: are we stuck in the mud? The retail sector is facing its own turbulence, with store closures and layoffs, but some positive signs as REITs predict a rollicking 2025 for retail investment. Meanwhile, the reality is sinking in about the GSA lease terminations as details emerge on which properties are on the chopping block—pulling the rug out from under parts of the D.C. (and other!) office markets—just as some were starting to show signs of life. And amid all the uncertainty, NVIDIA’s earnings were a modest beat but more importantly, offered insight into strong drivers of demand for data centers and related AI infrastructure for CRE investors and operators.00:19 Economic Data Highlights 01:03 Tariff Announcements and Market Reactions 02:09 Consumer Confidence and Market Sentiment 04:52 Housing Market Concerns 09:40 Recession Indicators and Bond Markets 13:33 Impact of AI and Tech Earnings 16:15 Federal Lease Terminations and Office Market Impact 24:53 Retail Market Updates 36:20 Listener Comments and Final Thoughts Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down a short, yet jam-packed week in the markets, from the Fed’s “status quo” minutes and weak housing data to Walmart’s downbeat retail outlook and a major shake-up in government office leases. They dissect the 2.3 million square feet of leases on the chopping block—half in D.C.—and the ripple effects for landlords, small-town economies, and lenders. While CRE sentiment is cautiously optimistic, no one’s popping the champagne just yet. The team also unpacks lodging sector trends, San Diego’s red-hot multifamily market, and growing office leasing momentum in some unexpected markets. On the retail front, the team discusses store closures, expansion plans, and newly listed properties. And in a final twist, KFC is taking the “K” out of KFC—well, sort of.00:30 Market Reactions to Retail Sales and Walmart Earnings 04:08 Fed Minutes and Interest Rate Speculations 07:08 CRE Market Sentiments and Trends 09:51 Housing Market Challenges 12:54 Government Lease Terminations 17:58 Lodging Sector Developments 21:38 Positive Signs in the Office Market 29:49 Retail Sector Updates 33:23 Multifamily Market InsightsHave question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com

Martha, Manus, and Dianne dig into the latest economic data, including inflation reports that sent mixed signals to the markets. Consumer inflation came in hotter than expected, rattling the bond markets, while Fed Chair Powell maintained a steady stance, signaling no rush to adjust policy. The team also discussed the downstream effects of federal layoffs, the cautiously optimistic forecast for CRE lending in 2025, and the sentiment coming out of the MBA conference—where banks are back, but no one is calling the market “normal” just yet. This episode also featured a discussion about the recent LightBox Wildfires Report with insights on the environmental impact of the Palisades and Eaton fires. The discussion highlighted the hidden risks of contamination in rebuilding efforts and how environmental intelligence is shaping recovery efforts.  And, with Valentine’s Day this week, the team considers an unconventional gift option. 02:10 Inflation Reports and Market Sentiment 09:29 Federal Layoffs and Local Economies 12:02 CRE Lending and Market Forecasts 20:53 Office and Retail Market Updates 27:00 Lightbox Data Dive: Wildfires Report 28:50 Big Game Scorecard: How’d We Do? Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com

Investors had plenty to chew on this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from earnings reports to Trump tariff turbulence, keeping heads on a swivel amid policy uncertainty. Treasury rates drifted lower, sparking cautious optimism, while Professor Manus broke down a major federal workforce buyout and what it could mean for unemployment. On the CRE front, the LightBox Activity Index brought some reassuring news—appraisals, transactions, and ESA activity all showed year-over-year gains, a positive sign despite market volatility. Dianne shared key takeaways from her keynote at the Environmental Bankers Association Annual Conference, including a pulse check on industry sentiment. Meanwhile, the team debated the potential office rebound, green shoots in Manhattan, and what thousands of GSA lease terminations could mean for vacancy rates. And, in a Super Bowl-themed data showdown, LightBox stacked up Philadelphia vs. Kansas City using CRE metrics—check out our social channels for the full scorecard.00:23 Market Reactions to Trump Tariffs 01:27 Treasury Yields and Job Market Insights 04:20 Environmental Bankers Association Conference Insights 10:30 Lightbox Activity Index Overview 15:15 Office Market Trends and Notable Leases 25:21 Super Bowl Fun Facts and Predictions 26:44 Upcoming Events and Listener Comments Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com

The last week of January delivered a mixed bag for the markets—the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, a fresh GDP print showed slower-than-expected growth, but most notably AI upstart DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the tech market with its launch. In this episode, Martha Coacher, Dianne Crocker, and Manus Clancy dig into the AI disruptor’s Sputnik moment and its potential impact on data centers, power demand, and the broader market. The team also takes stock of CRE’s cautiously bullish outlook, from investors itching to get back in the game to the latest LightBox CRE 2025 Predictions Report, where industry veterans are throwing around phrases like if not a banner year, a better year. Will 2025 deliver on the expected CRE transition? Plus, AT&T’s sale leaseback, and sales activity trends in Chicago office, and mixed-use properties. 00:17 Fed's Decision and Market Reactions01:01 AI Disruptor DeepSeek Shakes the Market02:01 Impact on Data Centers and Tech Stocks13:47 Commercial Real Estate Predictions for 202519:51 Retail Sector Developments25:01 Office Market Trends in Chicago31:48 Sale-Leaseback Deals and Corporate Finance33:19 Mentorship Program and Upcoming EventsHave question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com

Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO and adjunct professor at Columbia, never holds back and this week he joined the LightBox team to break down what lies ahead in 2025. The conversation centered on key questions: Has the market soured on the Fed? What can the office market learn from retail? And what predictions does he have for the year ahead as Trump policies start to take effect? From the cautious sentiment around the increase in Treasury yields to insights on how AI is reshaping CRE asset management and portfolio strategy, Ryan gives the team his unvarnished analysis. It’s a must-listen for anyone gaming out the landscape of commercial real estate for 2025. 02:23 Market Enthusiasm and Fed Policies 04:14 Has the Market Soured on the Fed? 11:20 Trump 2.0 Policy Impacts on CRE 21:06 The Concept of Third Space in CRE 24:26 Retail Market Misconceptions 28:14 Office Market Evolution 30:38 AI's Role in Commercial Real Estate 35:39 2025 Predictions and Economic Outlook Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.www.lightboxre.com