The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

It may be the season for a Santa Claus rally, but this week felt more Grinch than gift: a soft jobs report, 10-year Treasuries stuck above 4%, retail sales hinting at a more cautious consumer, and markets wobbling as investors rethink the AI trade. Manus and Dianne zoom out on the year that was: tariffs that didn’t trigger the hyperinflation many feared, rate cuts that arrived later and smaller than almost anyone predicted, and sentiment that swung quickly from optimism to anxiety in a series of “lane-departure warnings” rather than a clean soft landing. They unpack how Fed policy, shutdown-driven data distortions, equity market froth, and renewed securities buying are shaping the macro backdrop heading into 2026. On the CRE side, despite the bumpy ‘’market ride, the LightBox CRE Activity Index stayed in triple digits for 9 of the past 11 months, signaling a market that cooled and adjusted but never froze. Surprises included an office sector that didn’t collapse as the doomsayers predicted and even set leasing records in metros like New York and San Francisco, a multifamily recovery that’s taking longer to work through, and a data center land rush that turned once-ordinary parcels into $6 million-per-acre headlines.  The episode closes on a human note, with Manus, Dianne, and first-time host Molly sharing their standout moments of 2025—from weddings and college milestones to first apartments and new roles. Don’t miss this clear-eyed debrief on what 2025 got right, what it got wrong, and what this bumpy year means for CRE heading into 2026. Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Time Stamps 00:00 Introduction and Technical Setup 01:01 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:02 Macro Environment Surprises of 2025 08:29 Commercial Real Estate Insights 17:39 Reflections on Personal Highlights of 2025 www.lightboxre.com

This week on The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down the real story behind the widely anticipated 25 bps rate cut that pulled long-term Treasury yields lower and triggered a sharp stock rally. As thoughts turn to the 2026 forecast, the hosts explore what Powell’s dovish comments signal for future rate policy, how CRE has settled into a “higher-for-longer" reality, and whether the “pig in the python” effect could slow momentum next year.In the LightBox Data Dive, Dianne shares the latest Transaction Tracker metrics: 1,214 deals closed in November totaling $23.8B, a modest seasonal dip but still healthy activity across metros and asset classes. The month’s top three trades? All billion-dollar portfolios spanning senior living, mixed-use, and student housing.The episode also spotlights land grabs for future multifamily builds, fresh development financings across the country, selective industrial trading by major players, and the widening K-shaped recovery in office—plus a fun slice-of-life detour into headline-grabbing flip of the iconic Friends building.A week of rate relief, steady deal flow, and cautious optimism as 2025 draws to a close.00:55 Impact of Fed Remarks on the Market05:40 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts for 202607:40 NYU Real Estate Conference Insights10:53 Reflections and Predictions for 202616:29 LightBox Data Dive and Market Trends20:06 Development and Industrial Market Highlights27:49 San Diego Office Market ChallengesHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

This week, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker unpack a whirlwind of mixed, and often contradictory, market signals. The Fed’s Beige Book depicts an economy stuck in neutral, while the latest ADP report delivered the weakest private-sector payroll print since spring 2023, reigniting concerns about a potential labor-based recession. At the same time, markets are pricing in an 87% probability of a December rate cut at next week’s meeting, and equities are staging a renewed risk-on rally.Against this backdrop, Manus and Dianne discuss why forecasting in today’s murky market environment demands more caveats than ever. They explore CRE’s emerging “too cheap to ignore” moment as institutional buyers re-engage, the ongoing reset in multifamily rents, and why high-cost metros continue to lead the office-to-resi conversion wave. Fresh industrial signals suggest the sector’s long bull run may be giving way to a more selective market. And the latest LightBox CRE Activity Index adds further nuance with a modest 6% drop that reflects a milder-than-usual seasonal slowdown, signaling that CRE momentum is not moving in lockstep with the broader economy. From distressed multifamily absorption patterns to new Fannie/Freddie cap increases and office trades ranging from a rare SoHo profit to a steep Midtown discount, this episode captures a week defined by contradictions, recalibration, and emerging opportunities.00:59 Analysis of Labor Market Trends05:07 CRE Insights09:37 Multifamily Market Challenges14:35 LightBox Data Dive19:21 Office and Industrial Market Updates30:19 Office-to-Resi Conversions32:18 Fannie and Freddie Loan Purchase CapsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

In a short holiday week packed with headlines, markets saw a rare “melt-up” as long-term Treasury yields dipped below 4.01%, inflation data cooled, and odds of a December Fed rate cut jumped to 70%. Beneath the optimism, however, the affordability narrative out of Washington, softening job growth, and private-equity debt risks are raising new questions. Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dial into what it all means for CRE lending, liquidity, and spreads—and whether widening risk premiums could ripple through commercial real estate. The discussion also spotlights LightBox Q3 data showing lender-driven appraisal activity at a three-year high, solid bank profits, and bullish CMBS forecasts heading into 2026. Plus, the team weighs in on New York City’s controversial COPA proposal, Google’s big bet on the Lone Star state, and a pair of office-to-resi conversions set to reshape multifamily markets in Manhattan and Chicago.00:38 Market Highlights and Economic Indicators04:09 Affordability and Economic Concerns07:26 Private Equity and CRE Lending Insights13:20 CRE Lending and Market Dynamics17:57 Policy and Legislation Impacting CRE23:25 Data Centers and Tech Investments24:48 Office Conversions and Market TrendsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Markets wobbled this week as investors digested a mix of stock selloffs, cautious consumer data, and jobs numbers that left the Fed “flying blind” heading into December. Confidence is uneven, with big-box retailers sending conflicting signals as Home Depot and Target trimmed outlooks while Walmart beat expectations. Homebuilder sentiment also remains subdued after nearly two years of decline. In this episode of The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down the week’s crosscurrents and what they reveal about capital markets and commercial real estate. From early signs of stability in lending and select office assets to surprising risks beneath Los Angeles development sites, the conversation offers a grounded view of where confidence is returning and where caution still rules. A volatile week, a divided market, and insights you will not find in the headlines. Tune in to hear how Manus and Dianne are reading the signals as the year winds down. 00:20 Market Jitters and Economic Indicators09:22 Data Dive: Oil Wells in LA17:32 Office Sector Trends and Transactions27:54 Student Housing Portfolio Acquisition30:18 Thanksgiving Pie PreferencesHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

As the six-week federal shutdown finally comes to an end, markets exhaled from Wall Street to Main Street, easing travel worries ahead of Thanksgiving. But with October’s official jobs and inflation reports still on hold, visibility remains limited as the next Fed meeting approaches. What does that uncertainty mean for commercial real estate, and how confident is the market heading into year-end? This week, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down the post-shutdown landscape, from the shifting odds of a December rate cut to emerging signs of strength in CRE lending and deal activity. They unpack LightBox data showing steady momentum in October’s transactions, bright spots in bank lending as capital flows normalize, and whether that optimism can hold amid layoffs and softening business confidence. The discussion also highlights key industry stories, including Vornado and Rudin’s plan for a two-million-square-foot Park Avenue tower and a trio of data center deals in Northern Virginia and Phoenix that showcase the strength of digital infrastructure demand. The episode closes on a thoughtful Veterans Day note, spotlighting Cushman & Wakefield’s expanded hiring initiative for veterans and how firms are turning gratitude into opportunity.A week of contrasts: steady transactions, strong bank lending, a dearth of economic data, and a market balancing caution with confidence. Tune in to hear the team's take on what it all means as 2025 draws to a close.00:39 Economic Indicators and Job Market Concerns06:20 AI's Impact on Employment and Corporate Layoff10:45 Commercial Real Estate Deal Trends15:10 Banking Reports and Lending Confidence21:28 Development Projects and Market Confidence24:30 Data Center Market Dynamics31:11 Hotel Market Trends and ValuationsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

Everyone in New York is wondering the same thing: what will Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s win mean for the city—and for commercial real estate? Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dig into how his campaign promises on affordable housing, rent freezes, and tax hikes could reshape investor sentiment and property values in the country’s largest CRE market. They also discuss a week filled with contradictions, from job data that exceeded expectations to major companies announcing new rounds of layoffs, along with a federal government shutdown now reaching record length. Dianne shares highlights from the Real Estate Finance Association’s Connecticut event featuring Manulife’s Victor Calanog, who offered a surprisingly upbeat message: “CRE is back-ish.” That tone aligns with LightBox data showing October’s CRE Activity Index holding steady despite persistent headwinds. Also in focus are a $560 million Miami solar-integrated condo tower, Manhattan’s leasing surge, and a record $7.2 billion medical office portfolio deal. The episode closes with a Veterans Day “slice of life” and an unexpected question: is the Pentagon considering leasing land at Camp Pendleton?01:06 New York City's New Mayor: Implications for CRE06:21 Economic Data and Market Trends11:07 Positive Developments in CRE16:46 Labor Market Insights and Layoffs20:10 Recent Deals and Market Activity31:55 Veterans Day and Community ImpactHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.www.lightboxre.com

As the Fed trimmed rates a second time this week after a cooler-than-expected CPI report, trade tensions between the U.S. and China appeared to ease, the federal shutdown entered its second month, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dialed into what it all means for CRE. With Chair Powell’s caution that a December cut isn’t guaranteed, major corporate layoffs at Amazon, GM, and Paramount sharpened concerns that the job market is losing steam, giving the Fed more cover for additional rate relief. The episode also touched on how CRE lenders and appraisals are responding to AI and the risks of leaning too heavily on automated analysis without professional judgment.Manus and Dianne also dive into the week’s standout deals, from a promising $40M Chicago office-to-data center conversion to South Florida’s multifamily resurgence, plus LightBox platform data showing a dramatic 30% increase in nondisclosure agreements filed on property listings.  The market’s mood as we enter the second month of Q4? Confident, but not complacent.01:09 Market Highlights and Economic Updates03:58 Corporate Layoffs and Labor Market Trends08:58 The Impact of AI on Employment11:00 Hurricane Melissa and Climate Risk16:30 Future Outlook for Commercial Real Estate17:47 Data Dive: Investor Interest and NDAs23:02 Development Deals and Multifamily InvestmentsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Commercial real estate isn’t flinching. In this week’s LightBox CRE Weekly Digest, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down a market showing surprising steadiness as the federal shutdown drags on and another Fed rate decision looms. They dig into what’s really behind the “bad loan” headlines and reveal what the latest LightBox Environmental Due Diligence Market Advisory Council survey suggests about Q4 momentum (the rating might surprise you). Plus: a $2B LA warehouse transformation, record NYC office leasing led by finance and tech, a standout office-to-resi success, and retail capital still flowing from Annapolis to the West Coast. The episode wraps with a look at what’s keeping deals moving, and a personal milestone from Manus you won’t want to miss. 02:10 Market Snapshot: Shutdown & Earnings05:40 Tariffs, Trade Tensions & Corporate Confidence09:00 Banking Sector & Fraud Watch13:00 CRE Sentiment Turns Positive17:30 Due Diligence & Lending Activity24:00 NYC & LA: CRE Revival Stories28:30 Office-to-Resi Success & Housing Momentum33:30 Retail Strength & Selective Investor DemandHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com

Tariff shock, federal data blackout, and CRE dealmaking…still strengthening. This week, a new 100%-tariff threat on China could rejigger aluminum/steel inputs that already jumped 50%+ in Cushman & Wakefield’s math, and the federal shutdown kept key economic releases in the dark. Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down what it all means on the ground: how tariffs could slow new development (and support pricing), encouraging signs from big banks, and the great office reset in full swing. See the Midtown tower that sold at 43% below its 2007 mark. We also hit the $40B BlackRock–NVIDIA data-center pact, sturdier Q3 bank prints, and why multifamily is crowding institutional pipelines. Plus, a $660M loan modification negotiated by Iron Hound Management on a national office/industrial portfolio highlights how uncertainty around GSA lease risk is complicating refis. Bottom line: volatility may be rising, but CRE isn’t flinching. Investors remain disciplined and focused on deals that pencil. 03:30 Impact of Tariffs on Construction and CRE08:20 Bank Earnings and Corporate Failures13:13 Commercial Real Estate Trends17:39 Federal Shutdown Effects on CRE21:54 Leases and Transactions in the Office Segment26:38 Industrial Sector Boom31:26 Luxury Developments and Market DynamicsHave questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com. www.lightboxre.com