Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research shares his views on bond supply, housing market, oil, and recession risk. He discusses the mortgage buydowns and their impact on homebuilders, predicts a recession in Q2 2024, talks about the relationship between interest rates, oil prices, and economic activity, and explores US government deficits and uncertainty.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023. Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ years that help investors understand when the Fed might be forced to pause on their current tightening cycle. Expecting inflation to significantly reduce next year, Warren identifies a good risk reward scenario in the bond market . Finally, Warren shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (08:03) Lagarde's Hawkish Stance Ripples Through The European Bond Market (11:25) Europe Introduces An Energy Price Cap (14:02) Feature Interview With Warren Pies (15:05) Where Are We In The Current Macro Cycle? (17:37) The BoJ Suprises Markets With A Major Policy Change (19:56) Is This Time Different? (23:50) Don't Ignore The Yield Curve (27:15) Energy Will Be A Relative Outperformer (32:25) “Curve Ad” (33:35) Fading The Inflation Narrative (37:31) Warren's Actionable Trade Idea (44:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:43) What To Expect Heading Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal, co-founders of 3Fourteen Research, dive into the intricacies of investment strategies and asset allocation. They discuss the ideal conditions for gold amid shifting market valuations and share insights on the recovery of the S&P 500 post-bear market. The duo explores the dynamics of large-cap stocks and the impact of technology and AI on market trends, while also unveiling their innovative ETF strategies that recently gained substantial assets. Their engaging perspectives illuminate the complexities of today's financial landscape.

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, discusses market analysis, AI impact on productivity, market breadth, quality-driven ETF strategy, and combining systematic with discretionary investing. Topics include 60/40 portfolio outlook, inflation, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, seasonality, and retail sentiment.

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research and portfolio manager of $FCTE, shares insights on his remarkable achievement of raising over $450 million for his ETF in under six months. He discusses the critical role of research in attracting investor interest and how strong client relationships can redefine traditional interactions. Warren emphasizes a disciplined, long-term investment approach over fleeting trends and provides a glimpse into the unique strategies that drive his innovative ETF's success.

Warren Pies, a financial expert from 3Fourteen Research, dives deep into market dynamics and the potential for S&P 500 growth. He discusses the impact of Federal Reserve policies on small-cap and mid-cap stocks, revealing a split recovery favoring larger corporations. Pies shares insights on effective investment strategies, emphasizing quality stock selection and the importance of return on invested capital. He also explores the current commodities landscape, weighing the complexities of oil versus a bullish outlook on gold and Bitcoin.

In this engaging talk, Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research and a portfolio manager, sheds light on the unexpected impact of Fed rate cuts on bonds and commodities. He shares expert strategies for navigating oil markets using commitment of traders data. The conversation dives into inflation modeling complexities while exploring the evolving dynamics of the labor market and its influence on economic policies. Plus, there's a blend of personal anecdotes, including a nod to music, making for a lively and insightful discussion.

Warren Pies and Andreas Steno Larsen discuss inflation, Fed policy, construction cycle, commodities markets, U.S. Dollar, risk assets, and potential Fed rate cuts. They analyze the impact of housing inflation, market rotations, construction cycle on real estate, oil market dynamics, and Federal Reserve rate cuts on equity markets.

The U.S. added 311,000 jobs in February while unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.6%. That quickly became background noise though, as trouble in the banking sector sparked a massive selloff in yields. It didn’t take long for U.S. equities to follow suit. Ash Bennington is joined by Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss whether regulators shutting down Silicon Valley Bank is a sign of wider contagion in the sector, and what the Fed will do next. As Warren sees it, timing is everything.Plus, we’ll hear from Alex Gurevich on how central banks are monopolistic entities just like Apple. Catch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3ZBbjl1 and you can find more of Warren’s work here: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research, discusses the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, oil market impact on inflation & bond yields, and the Fed's strategy regarding easing. Topics also include rent inflation, core PCE target challenges, and speculations on Fed's monetary policy amid elections.