The Compound and Friends End of an Empire
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Apr 18, 2025 
Warren Pies, founder and chief strategist at 3Fourteen Research, joins the hosts to explore the current market landscape. They delve into the aftermath of stock market corrections and historical earnings trends. The conversation shifts to looming recession signs, the impact of foreign investments, and how Trump's trade strategies might influence the economy. Pies shares insights on the evolving sentiment toward the U.S. dollar and emphasizes risk management amid investor psychology, all while maintaining a cautious optimism about future recovery.
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End of Empire Signs in Markets
- The combination of declining safe havens like bonds and dollars amid a stock market drop signals real money fleeing US assets.
- This rare event reflects existential concerns about the stability of the US empire and capital markets.
Negative Q1 Predicts Cautious Year
- Years that start with a negative Q1 tend to underperform the rest of the year significantly.
- Negative Q1 removes momentum and chasing, leading to a more cautious market mindset.
Market Outlook Depends on Recession
- After a 10% market drop without a recession, average further downside tends to be mild and most cases show gains.
- With a recession, markets usually perform poorly with significant additional losses.