The Compound and Friends

The Case for a Year-End Melt-Up

83 snips
Nov 21, 2025
Warren Pies, co-founder and chief strategist of 314 Research, joins the discussion with insights on Nvidia's impressive earnings and its implications for the AI boom. He highlights the current K-shaped economy, focusing on housing affordability challenges and potential policy solutions like long-term mortgages. The conversation shifts to macro risks and the expected year-end market rally, backed by favorable sentiment indicators. Pies also introduces 314 Research’s upcoming AI charting agent that promises to streamline data visualization for investors.
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INSIGHT

NVIDIA Reset The AI Narrative

  • NVIDIA's earnings calmed stretched sentiment and reset the market narrative about AI adoption.
  • Strong guidance and net income growth signaled the AI theme remains the primary market driver.
INSIGHT

Extreme Narrowness In Market Leadership

  • Market leadership has narrowed dramatically with fewer stocks beating the index than ever.
  • This concentration creates pain for many investors and fuels wishful pessimism toward leaders.
INSIGHT

Efficiency Likely Spurs More Compute Demand

  • Efficiency gains in AI could reduce hardware spend but likely redirect compute to new use cases.
  • The Jevons paradox suggests cheaper compute may spark more, not less, overall demand.
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