Two leading experts, Dr. Tong Zhao and Dr. Fiona Cunningham, debate whether China's expanding nuclear arsenal represents a shift in China's nuclear strategy. They discuss China's evolving view on nuclear weapons, its pursuit of escalation management capability, and the implications of its accelerated nuclear expansion. The debate also covers China's nuclear deterrent system, advanced warhead technology, and the role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan contingency. Lastly, they explore the connection between China's non-nuclear strategic capabilities and its nuclear strategy.

Is a nuclear arms race inevitable? China has been building up its nuclear arsenal over the past few years. While it remains significantly smaller than the US and Russia’s, what does this mean for geopolitics against the backdrop of US-China tensions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine?Tong Zhao (@zhaot2005) is a fellow at the Carnegie Center in Beijing who focuses on China’s nuclear program. Co-hosting is Schwarzmann Scholar Raven Witherspoon.We also discuss Why China sees NATO as the aggressor and Russia as the victim Why policy experts’ lack of technical literacy is a big problem How China understands nuclear deterrence China’s argument for Putin being a rational actor Whether there is any hope Outro music: 七里香 Remix (original version by Jay Chou) by MACOVASEAS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVvpgNG0giMChinaTalk is on Substack! See, share, subscribe: https://chinatalk.substack.comAlso now on Youtube! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXOtILmQEo3pL_1bJfUOFWwAnd please consider supporting ChinaTalk on Patreon so we can eat more Haidilao before the world ends: https://www.patreon.com/ChinaTalkGet bonus content on PatreonSee acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tong Zhao, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, dives into the shifting landscape of China's nuclear policy. He explores how Xi Jinping’s leadership is reshaping nuclear strategy, blending traditional deterrence with newfound warfighting capabilities. The discussion reveals how U.S. military strategies influence China's nuclear perceptions, particularly regarding low-yield weapons. Zhao also addresses the interplay between U.S. nuclear policies and China's ambitions, emphasizing the importance of nuanced understanding in this evolving dynamic.