ChinaPower China's Accelerated Expansion of its Nuclear Arsenal Represents a Shift in China's Nuclear Strategy and Doctrine: A Debate with Dr. Tong Zhao and Dr. Fiona Cunningham
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Jan 9, 2024 Two leading experts, Dr. Tong Zhao and Dr. Fiona Cunningham, debate whether China's expanding nuclear arsenal represents a shift in China's nuclear strategy. They discuss China's evolving view on nuclear weapons, its pursuit of escalation management capability, and the implications of its accelerated nuclear expansion. The debate also covers China's nuclear deterrent system, advanced warhead technology, and the role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan contingency. Lastly, they explore the connection between China's non-nuclear strategic capabilities and its nuclear strategy.
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Shift in China's Nuclear Goals
- China's nuclear goals have shifted beyond mere deterrence to influencing global strategic perceptions.
- Fear of existential threats and ambition drive an urgent and expansive nuclear build-up under Xi Jinping.
Incoherence in Nuclear Means
- China’s nuclear strategy is increasingly incoherent, driven by political motives over scientific judgment.
- Centralized power under Xi reduces checks, leading to rapid, less calculated nuclear expansion.
New Escalation Management Focus
- China increasingly pursues escalation management capabilities and launch-on-warning posture.
- These moves could destabilize US-China nuclear relations despite traditional beliefs in limited escalation.