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China's Accelerated Expansion of its Nuclear Arsenal Represents a Shift in China's Nuclear Strategy and Doctrine: A Debate with Dr. Tong Zhao and Dr. Fiona Cunningham

Jan 9, 2024
Two leading experts, Dr. Tong Zhao and Dr. Fiona Cunningham, debate whether China's expanding nuclear arsenal represents a shift in China's nuclear strategy. They discuss China's evolving view on nuclear weapons, its pursuit of escalation management capability, and the implications of its accelerated nuclear expansion. The debate also covers China's nuclear deterrent system, advanced warhead technology, and the role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan contingency. Lastly, they explore the connection between China's non-nuclear strategic capabilities and its nuclear strategy.
01:06:26

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Quick takeaways

  • China's nuclear strategy has shifted to view nuclear weapons as a tool to influence international perception and maintain regime security.
  • Assessing China's nuclear strategy requires a thorough understanding of its overall security and foreign policy thinking.

Deep dives

China's nuclear strategy and increasing existential threat perception

China's nuclear strategy has been changing in response to an increasing sense of existential threat. It now views nuclear weapons not only as a means of deterrence, but also as a tool to influence international perception of its strategic power. Chinese leadership has become more determined to preventively address rising threats and to maintain regime security. China's nuclear build-up is driven by a desire to counter increasing geopolitical threats and to influence the behavior of US-led Western countries. However, the lack of checks and balances in China's decision-making process, as well as the increasing centralization of power, has led to tensions and contradictions in its nuclear thinking. Changes in means and goals of China's nuclear strategy are primarily a result of internal factors, such as Xi Jinping's personal influence and a less coherent decision-making process.

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