Sinica Podcast Carnegie's Tong Zhao on the Expansion of China's Nuclear Arsenal
Jun 25, 2025
Tong Zhao, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, dives into China's evolving nuclear doctrine and the recent expansion of its arsenal under Xi Jinping. He discusses the balance of symbolism and strategy, questioning whether China’s buildup is defensive or offensive. Zhao also examines the implications of U.S.-China relations, particularly during Trump’s presidency, and how this affects Taiwan. Additionally, he explores China’s complex stance on North Korea's nuclear ambitions, shedding light on the intricate geopolitical landscape.
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China's Nuclear Doctrine Basics
- China maintains a no first use nuclear policy and a minimum deterrence strategy with a small, survivable nuclear arsenal.
- The doctrine focuses on guaranteed retaliation to impose unacceptable damage if first struck.
Rapid Growth of China’s Arsenal
- China's nuclear arsenal has rapidly grown from about 200 warheads in 2019 to more than 600 currently.
- This near tripling is an unprecedented and surprising buildup to many international observers.
Political Drivers of Nuclear Expansion
- China's recent nuclear buildup is driven more by internal political considerations and legitimacy under Xi Jinping than purely military needs.
- Xi views a larger nuclear arsenal as key to enhancing China's international status and deterring U.S. hostility amid power transition fears.
