Peter Wildeford

Peter Wildeford, Co-CEO of Rethink Priorities and a renowned forecaster, dives into the world of forecasting and prediction markets. He challenges traditional ideas about expertise, emphasizing reliability over credentials. The discussion touches on how non-experts often outperform respected sources in accuracy. Wildeford also highlights the importance of structured tracking for predictions, stressing the blend of human intuition and algorithms for better outcomes. Finally, he envisions a future where informed forecasting enhances decision-making across various fields.

Peter Wildeford, Chief Advisory Executive at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, dives into the world of forecasting and its crucial role in AI policy. He discusses how integrating forecasters into government can enhance decision-making, while also addressing the societal impacts of AI. Notable highlights include proactive strategies for AI safety, the complexities of predicting employment shifts amidst rapid AI integration, and the balance between AI's strengths and its limitations in making nuanced predictions. A thought-provoking chat on the future of AI!

Peter Wildeford, author of Eight Fundamental Constraints for Growing a Research Organization, discusses the key constraints for organizational growth. These constraints include having sufficient important work, skill in prioritization, talented researchers, and fostering a positive organizational culture.