Center for AI Policy Podcast #17: Peter Wildeford on AI Policy and Forecasting
Jun 6, 2025
Peter Wildeford, Chief Advisory Executive at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, dives into the world of forecasting and its crucial role in AI policy. He discusses how integrating forecasters into government can enhance decision-making, while also addressing the societal impacts of AI. Notable highlights include proactive strategies for AI safety, the complexities of predicting employment shifts amidst rapid AI integration, and the balance between AI's strengths and its limitations in making nuanced predictions. A thought-provoking chat on the future of AI!
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Importance of Explicit Forecasting
- Forecasting means putting explicit probabilities on future events rather than stating vague possibilities.
- Explicit and trackable forecasts lead to better decision making than intuitive guesses.
Improve Forecasting by Practice
- Practice making explicit forecasts and track your accuracy over time to improve.
- Reflect on mistakes like reviewing a sports game to get better at forecasting.
Combine Expertise with Forecasters
- Forecasting skill is general and can outperform domain experts in many areas.
- Best results come from combining domain experts and skilled generalist forecasters.
