Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg Forecasting the things that matter (with Peter Wildeford)
Oct 21, 2022
Peter Wildeford, Co-CEO of Rethink Priorities and a renowned forecaster, dives into the world of forecasting and prediction markets. He challenges traditional ideas about expertise, emphasizing reliability over credentials. The discussion touches on how non-experts often outperform respected sources in accuracy. Wildeford also highlights the importance of structured tracking for predictions, stressing the blend of human intuition and algorithms for better outcomes. Finally, he envisions a future where informed forecasting enhances decision-making across various fields.
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Episode notes
Prioritize Track Records
- Prioritize trusting people with proven track records of accurate predictions.
- Consider their past successes, not just prestige or credentials, when evaluating expertise.
Forecasters Outperform Experts
- Non-experts using forecasting techniques sometimes outperform traditional experts.
- This was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic in predicting pandemic-related events.
Omicron Variant Risk Assessment
- Peter Wildeford used Metaculus to assess the risks of the Omicron variant.
- He found it more informative than news headlines for quantitative risk assessment.
