Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro at Fidelity Investments, shares his insights on the current bull market's dynamics. He discusses how earnings and valuations are interplaying amidst rising interest rates. Timmer also analyzes the risks associated with U.S. debt levels and potential inflation reacceleration. He highlights the unique traits of today’s market compared to historical trends and explores alternative investments like gold and Bitcoin as protection strategies. Tune in for a captivating take on what lies ahead for investors!

Join Chief Revenue Officer of Rakuten Rewards, Julie Van Ullen, as she discusses shifting consumer behaviors this Black Friday, highlighting the rise in essentials spending and the allure of cashback incentives. Clint Henderson, from The Points Guy, shares insights on travel trends and the nuances of airline loyalty programs, emphasizing strategic use of rewards. Jurrien Timmer, from Fidelity, offers his macroeconomic perspective on market trends amid today’s uncertainties, probing the implications of significant cash surpluses in the economy.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity for a discussion about the recession many analysts see ahead in 2023. How could a recession in 2023 effect corporate earnings and markets more broadly? As liquidity ha already declined throughout 2022, could a recession be the catalyst to bring markets lower? Jurrien walks through all these dynamics and how the tightening of financial conditions has impacted Jurrien's favoured discount cash flow model. Finally, Jurrien shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jurrien: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The Bond Market Is Pricing A 2023 Recession (06:11) Does Inflation Come Down With A Recession? History Says Yes (10:38) Feature Interview With Jurrien Timmer (18:03) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (24:22) “Curve Ad” (25:31) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (30:12) Are We Close To A Peak In Fed Funds? (35:25) Jurrien's Actionable Trade Idea (38:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (41:17) When Will The Fed End QT? (51:54) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Financial expert Jurrien Timmer joins the conversation to delve into crucial economic issues. He discusses the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and their anticipated effects on the labor market and inflation. The conversation also highlights the rise and fall of once-prominent investors and the importance of humility in investing. Timmer touches on market dynamics, specifically the performance of mega-cap tech stocks and the impact of AI. Expect insightful predictions and a sprinkle of lighthearted anecdotes throughout!

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity joins the show to talk about rising interest rates, gold/bitcoin, oil demand destruction, equities crash, strikes, consumer stocks, CFPB, Genius Sports, NFL picks, stock market in limbo, broadening market rally, yield curve, rate-sensitive sectors, the consumer, and U.S. dollar strength.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Management, analyzes market volatility ahead of potential Fed changes. Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, discusses Kamala Harris's surge in the polls as her campaign gains momentum. Ayesha Kiani shares insights on President Trump's comments regarding Bitcoin and its market implications in the context of the upcoming presidential race. The conversation highlights the intersecting dynamics of politics and digital assets, setting the stage for an intriguing election season.

Jurrien Timmer, Dan Ives, and Elizabeth Economy discuss Nvidia's impact on markets, China's global ambitions, and the future of Taiwan. Topics include Apple's growth, A.I. developments, and navigating China's rising influence. The podcast also covers Scarlett Johansson, CEO compensation trends, challenges in Florida's senior care, and real estate and labor costs.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity, discusses why TradFi will embrace Bitcoin, the evolution of the 60/40 paradigm, Bitcoin as 'exponential gold', potential macro asset dominance of Bitcoin, market reactions to presidential election cycles, financial repression, and fiscal dominance. Timmer explores the impacts of fiscal dominance, monetary stimulus, and Bitcoin's future in the economic landscape.

In this podcast, guests Ed Yardeni, Jurrien Timmer, Amrita Sen, and Lisa Mateo discuss various topics such as market performance, concerns about earnings, technology and productivity, sector ETFs, peak oil demand, transportation challenges for World Cup finals, and Gen Z payments.

In this insightful discussion, Susan Collins, President of the Boston Fed, dives into the nuances of monetary policy and the current economic landscape, focusing on inflation and interest rates. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity offers a captivating analysis of market trends while revealing key data points regarding the ongoing equity rally. Meanwhile, Yale's Gautam Mukunda shares intriguing perspectives on President-elect Trump's cabinet choices and their prospective influence on the balance of power in Washington. It's a blend of economics and politics that keeps listeners engaged!