Ep.124 Real Conversations: Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, Fidelity → Market Risk, Rotation & Opportunity

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May 7, 2025

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, discusses the shifting landscape of investments. He highlights challenges to the traditional 60/40 portfolio and the trend of investors moving towards gold and Bitcoin. Timmer analyzes new policy risks tied to asset prices and warns of rising market risks while identifying emerging opportunities. He also delves into GDP markdowns and earnings resets, offering insightful predictions on equity markets. This conversation is a treasure trove for navigating today's complex financial terrain.

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INSIGHT

Market Behavior Mirrors Human Cycles

Market behavior reflects human cycles of fear and greed, making history rhyme though it doesn't repeat exactly.
Experience helps investors see beyond short-term noise to understand market cycles and price discovery.

INSIGHT

Markets Find Price Boundaries

Markets constantly reprice to find boundaries, like sales pricing to find demand.
Policy pivots may come from fiscal rather than monetary responses, setting new support levels in price discovery.

INSIGHT

Secular Bull Markets Near End

We're near the end of long secular and cyclical bull markets, with tariffs as a catalyst for regime change.
The end of dollar dominance could lower U.S. margins and valuations, creating big questions for investors.

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***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on May 7th, 2025***

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, joins Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a timely, no-nonsense breakdown of the current macro investing landscape.

Markets are shifting. Policy pivots appear tied to asset price thresholds. The 60/40 portfolio is under pressure. And investors are rotating out of mega-cap dominance into uncorrelated assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Key topics include:

The market’s new “strike price” — and what it signals about policy risk
Why the 60/40 era is fading — and what replaces it
GDP markdowns, earnings resets, and what they mean for equities
Where risk is rising — and where real opportunity may exist

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