On today's episode of On The Margin, Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Research joins the show for a discussion on the business cycle slowdown that suggests a "recession is imminent". With Eric's research following leading, cyclical and lagging indicators, he manages to keep a pulse on the current economic environment and its ultimate impact on markets. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearchFollow EPB Research: https://epbresearch.com/Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_—Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:37) A Recession Is Imminent(05:37) Housing Is The Business Cycle(13:46) Permissionless II Ad(14:34) Markets Are Stuck In Limbo(24:26) What Will Cause Something To Break?(31:56) Is The Unemployment Rate A Good Barometer Of A Recession?(44:03) Research Ad(44:53) The Fed's Outlook: What Should They Do vs What Will They Do(51:24) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research and an expert in macroeconomic forecasting, dives into the intricate world of the business cycle. He reveals how the cyclical economy affects everything from GDP numbers to the housing sector. The discussion explores labor market dynamics, emphasizing jobless claims and the gig economy's impact. Basmajian unpacks the complexities of non-farm payrolls and revisions, while also tackling the Federal Reserve's neutral rate and its implications for monetary policy.

Eric Basmajian, founder and CEO of EPB Research, provides deep insights into current economic conditions. He discusses a four economies framework, offering clarity on macroeconomic trends, inflation, and the effects of construction on growth. Basmajian delves into rising unemployment issues and recent job data revisions that impact forecasts. The conversation highlights long-term economic challenges, including government influence on growth and the effects of skyrocketing housing prices on demographics. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis!

Eric Basmajian, a business cycle expert, discusses how presidential elections impact economic trends. Joining him are Michael Gayed, who analyzes sector opportunities depending on political outcomes, and Chaim Siegel, offering insights on geopolitical influences. They explore how market sentiment and tariffs could affect companies in a Trump scenario. The trio emphasizes that economic cycles matter more than individual politicians, dissecting cumulative inflation's impact and the potential ramifications of shifting U.S. leadership on global markets.

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, discusses the U.S. business cycle and leading indicators suggesting an upcoming recession. Topics covered include housing and auto growth, consumer credit trends, unemployment rates, and the mechanics of higher interest rates. The podcast also explores the bull market in stocks, the possibility of the U.S. economy already being in a recession, and predictions on Fed interest rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession by 2025.