Forward Guidance
Eric Basmajian: Why The U.S. Economy Hasn’t Entered Recession Yet (And Why He Is Confident It Will Soon)
Sep 12, 2023
Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, discusses the U.S. business cycle and leading indicators suggesting an upcoming recession. Topics covered include housing and auto growth, consumer credit trends, unemployment rates, and the mechanics of higher interest rates. The podcast also explores the bull market in stocks, the possibility of the U.S. economy already being in a recession, and predictions on Fed interest rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession by 2025.
01:16:55
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Quick takeaways
- Signs of a recessionary phase in the US economy are evident, with indicators like job losses in cyclical industries and a sustained contraction in gross domestic income.
- Durable goods consumption has held up better than expected, suggesting that cyclical spending is still on the verge of turning down.
Deep dives
Signs of Recessionary Phase in the Economy
The podcast episode discusses how the economy, although not officially in a recession, is showing signs of entering a recessionary phase. Various recession indicators, such as job losses in cyclical industries and a sustained contraction in gross domestic income, are pointing towards a downturn. Although there may not have been a significant event to define the start of a recession, indicators like payrolls and unemployment rate could continue to deteriorate, possibly leading to a recession in early 2023.
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