Business Cycle Dynamics and Political Influence

The overall business cycle dynamics are expected to remain largely unaffected by which political candidate is elected. Although new policies may have a marginal impact, significant changes in the economy are unlikely without a dramatic shift in government spending akin to the COVID-19 response. The economy is currently experiencing growth, but this growth is decelerating, particularly in sectors such as construction and manufacturing. Whichever candidate takes office will face a deceleration in these cyclical sectors during their initial months in power.