Investing Experts
This is about business cycles, not who's going to be president
Nov 4, 2024
Eric Basmajian, a business cycle expert, discusses how presidential elections impact economic trends. Joining him are Michael Gayed, who analyzes sector opportunities depending on political outcomes, and Chaim Siegel, offering insights on geopolitical influences. They explore how market sentiment and tariffs could affect companies in a Trump scenario. The trio emphasizes that economic cycles matter more than individual politicians, dissecting cumulative inflation's impact and the potential ramifications of shifting U.S. leadership on global markets.
29:56
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Quick takeaways
- Business cycles are largely stable regardless of the political winner, with significant economic shifts requiring unprecedented government spending changes.
- Geopolitical dynamics, especially regarding tariffs and international relations, are crucial for investors to assess potential market impacts and risks.
Deep dives
Business Cycle Dynamics and Political Influence
The overall business cycle dynamics are expected to remain largely unaffected by which political candidate is elected. Although new policies may have a marginal impact, significant changes in the economy are unlikely without a dramatic shift in government spending akin to the COVID-19 response. The economy is currently experiencing growth, but this growth is decelerating, particularly in sectors such as construction and manufacturing. Whichever candidate takes office will face a deceleration in these cyclical sectors during their initial months in power.
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