Edward Chancellor

Financial expert Howard Marks and journalist Edward Chancellor discuss the history and impact of interest rates, the effects of low and negative interest rates on the economy, the complex relationship between interest rates and capital flows, the criticism of central bank activism, and the importance of monitoring the credit cycle in successful market calls.

In this engaging discussion, Edward Chancellor, a financial historian and author of "The Price of Time," explores the intricate relationship between interest rates and the concept of time. He warns about how today's low returns contribute to economic instability while tracing the fascinating rise and fall of John Law, a pioneering financial figure. Chancellor also addresses the implications of irresponsible monetary policy on productivity and wage growth, urging listeners to reflect on the true cost of money in our economic systems.

Edward Chancellor, a financial historian and journalist known for his insightful works on financial speculation, dives deep into the fascinating world of money and interest. He explores how low interest rates fuel speculative bubbles and discusses the societal impacts of debt and inflation. Chancellor connects historical events with modern challenges like central bank digital currencies, emphasizing the emotional narratives behind financial systems. The conversation also critiques current banking practices and highlights the potential risks of the 'everything bubble' in today’s economy.

In Episode 266 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with financial historian, journalist, and author Edward Chancellor. For the last twenty years, Chancellor has been arguably known best for his book, “Devil Take the Hindmost,” which is a fantastic history of the last 400 years of financial speculation. Yet, that streak may be soon coming to an end with the publication tomorrow of his latest book, “The Price of Time,” an absolutely brilliant philosophical exploration of interest and its essential role in valuing and directing the allocation of capital, labor, and resources in the economy over time. Interest rates have sometimes been described on this podcast and elsewhere as the “price of money.” While this definition is useful, it fails to capture the temporal dimension of interest rates and the role that they play in expanding the continuum of economic activity, cooperation, investment, and consumption beyond the immediate grasp of the present moment. The ability to accumulate capital in the form of money enables us to operate outside of entropy’s constraints—we aren’t limited in other words by the decomposition or decay of a sack of barley, a barrel of oil, or a concrete building. But in order to value that capital through both space and time, we need something more. And that something is interest: the price you pay to borrow money or the cost you charge to lend it over time. Over the last two decades the price of time has plummeted to levels never before seen in human history and with it have arrived a multiplicity of asset price bubbles, a reduction in productivity growth, rising wealth and income inequality, a discouragement of savings, a growth in supply chains, and an excessive amount of risk-taking encouraged by the acrobatics of yield-starved investors in search of decent return. In this excellent and timely conversation, you are going to learn about the history of interest and its historical role in promoting human cooperation, economic activity, and advancement. You are also going to learn about how interest is priced, where it comes from, and the difference between the so-called “natural rate” of interest and what central banks have claimed as their policy lever to control the scale, scope, and distribution of capital in society. In the second hour of our conversation which is available to premium subscribers only, Edward Chancellor and Demetri Kofinas apply the framework that they develop in the first part of the episode to help you understand where we find ourselves today, whether or not central banks and governments can indeed use their policy tools to fix the very problems that those tools have to help create, what some of those solutions and the path forward could look like, and what all of this means for you and your portfolio. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/09/2022

In Episode 318 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political and financial historians Edward Chancellor, Russell Napier, and Helen Thompson. All three have appeared individually on the podcast before and joined Demetri ahead of his latest Genius community dinner in London to discuss the changing nature of the international economic and political order. Many of the material changes we are experiencing today are driven by the reversal of multi-decade trends in demographics, globalization, and low-cost, carbon-based energy sources. The ripple effects of these changes on inflation, risk rates, wealth & income distribution, national security, and the ruling legitimacy of national governments are already starting to materialize. Learning to navigate these changes is crucial if you want to remain ahead of the curve. Today’s conversation is meant to help you do just that. The episode’s second hour begins with a discussion about the energy transition and its geostrategic consequences for resource-rich countries like the US and Russia, for countries that are heavily dependent on energy imports like those in the European Union, and for China, which is investing enormous sums of money into renewables and other, non-carbon-based sources of energy. The panel also discusses the possibility of a rapprochement between the US, Europe, and Russia, avenues for peace between the US and China, and some of the industries and sectors that are positioned to benefit, as well as those that you will want to avoid in this new economic and political paradigm. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/29/2023

Christian Billinger and Edward Chancellor discuss the benefits of capital cycle investing, forecasting supply vs. demand. They explore the impact of quality on generating Alpha, excesses in the current market, and applying the framework in capital-light industries. The conversation touches on market bubbles, underinvestment trends, and navigating turbulent markets with a supply-focused approach.

Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069____Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=enFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featuredJoseph Wang’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles(11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard(18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad(30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital(37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity(45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos(46:44) Unicorns and Zombies(54:20) Elite Overproduction(57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Edward Chancellor, a financial historian and author of "The Price of Time," delves into the fallout from historically low interest rates, including unaffordable housing and rising inequality. He warns that the worst economic impacts might still be ahead. Chancellor discusses the role of interest rates in fostering 'zombie companies' and the widening wealth gap. He also critiques the exploitative nature of payday loans amid these trends and offers insights into navigating current market dynamics, especially for tech valuations and investment strategies.

Edward Chancellor, columnist and author, delves into the history of lending and interest rates. He discusses the problems with centralized banking, financial repression in China and the US, and the relationship between inflation and interest. The podcast explores the significance of interest rates in corporate finance and macroeconomics, the impact of financial engineering, challenges of debt and government bonds, and the potential of cryptocurrency as an alternative to conventional banking.

Join Russell Napier, a financial historian and founder of the Library of Mistakes, alongside Edward Chancellor, renowned author of The Price of Time, as they dissect the economic narratives surrounding the Trump presidency. They explore historical parallels with significant policies, the impact of executive actions on investor confidence, and the implications of high debt in developed nations. Their conversation also delves into the challenges of central bank independence and offers insights into strategic investment opportunities amidst current market volatility.