Join Russell Napier, a financial historian and founder of the Library of Mistakes, alongside Edward Chancellor, renowned author of The Price of Time, as they dissect the economic narratives surrounding the Trump presidency. They explore historical parallels with significant policies, the impact of executive actions on investor confidence, and the implications of high debt in developed nations. Their conversation also delves into the challenges of central bank independence and offers insights into strategic investment opportunities amidst current market volatility.
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insights INSIGHT
Trump's Erratic Actions
Trump's executive orders appear erratic and volatile, causing uncertainty.
Experts seek a coherent path or central theme within his actions.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Trump and FDR
Trump's actions are compared to FDR's New Deal, a mix of conflicting policies.
Both undermined business confidence, discouraging investment.
insights INSIGHT
Trump's Real Estate Mindset
Trump's background in real estate may explain his focus on negotiation and lack of foresight.
Unintended consequences are a key challenge for his agenda.
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In 'The Price of Time', Edward Chancellor delves into the history of interest from ancient Mesopotamia to the present day, highlighting its crucial role in determining how capital is allocated and priced. The book discusses the concept of interest as the 'price of time', its various forms and justifications throughout history, and its impact on economic activities. Chancellor argues that low interest rates, particularly those following the 2008 financial crisis, have led to economic instability, asset price bubbles, reduced productivity growth, and increased inequality. The book is praised for its engaging narrative, rich in anecdotes and historical insights, making it accessible and informative for both economic historians and general readers.
In this edition of the Money Makers Investment Trusts Podcast, Jonathan Davis, editor of the Investment Trusts Handbook and winner of the 2024 AIC Best Broadcast Journalist Award, is joined by two experts on financial history, Russell Napier, global market strategist and founder of the Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh, and Edward Chancellor, historian and author of The Price of Time, to put the dramas of Trump 2.0 in context.
This discussion was recorded on 25 March 2025 at the Weekend of Mistakes in Hay-on-Wye.
*** Out now: The 2025 Investment Trusts Handbook ***
The Investment Trusts Handbook is an independent educational publication designed to provide investors with a handy annual reference book that summarises all you need to know about investment trusts. Now in its eighth year, the Handbook is a high-quality, full-colour hardback of more than 340 pages, the largest yet, with reviews of the past year, extensive interviews and commentary, plus nearly 80 pages of “how to” information and performance data. Available to order from Harriman House (https://harriman-house.com/ithb2025) or Amazon. There is also a free e-book version you can read on a PC, tablet or smartphone, plus an audiobook version.
Next week Jonathan will be speaking and signing copies of the Handbook at the Master Investor show in London on March 29th.
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Section Timestamps:
0:00:24 - Introduction
0:01:33 - Putting the Trump presidency into historical context
0:04:36 - Market reactions
0:06:50 - Trump’s motivations and agenda
0:11:52 - Will Scott Bessent reign in Trump’s more extravagant proposals?
0:16:00 - A short break
0:16:56 - Returning to capital controls and a loss of independence in central banks?
0:22:21 - Anticipating a change in market style
0:25:34 - Gold
0:27:58 - Putting on a hard hat
0:29:50 - The Library of Mistakes, London
0:30:36 - Close
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Produced by Ben Gamblin.