Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist, Head of the Mastercard Economics Institute
Jul 11, 2024
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Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at MasterCard, discusses leveraging real-time transaction data for economic analysis, revealing insights on consumer trends like the Swift Lift effect from Taylor Swift concerts and increased demand along the April solar eclipse line of totality. The conversation explores resilient US consumers post-pandemic, regional labor market disparities, goods prices, inflation trends, and the complexity of financial conditions and monetary policy.
Markets now serve as inputs, informing economic trends beyond just being outputs.
Mastercard's real-time transaction data reveals local consumer trends like Taylor Swift concert spending and eclipse-related demand.
Deep dives
Transition from Sell Side Economist to MasterCard's Chief Economist
Michelle Meyer discusses her transition from a traditional sell side economics role at Lehman Brothers and Bank of America to becoming the Chief Economist at MasterCard. At MasterCard, she focuses more on utilizing a vast data set of real-time transactions to understand consumer trends globally and locally. This shift has allowed her to explore economic trends with a broader audience beyond just the investor community.
Role of Markets in Economic Analysis
Michelle highlights the evolving role of markets in economic analysis, noting that markets now serve as an input rather than just an output. She emphasizes how she uses market data to inform her insights on economic growth, consumer spending trends, and long-term economic dynamics. This change in perspective has influenced her approach to understanding the economy.
Insights from Unique Data Sets
Michelle delves into the wealth of insights derived from MasterCard's unique data set of global transactions. She discusses specific examples such as the 'SwiftLift' effect, where she analyzes spending patterns around Taylor Swift concerts, and the increased demand along the path of totality during an eclipse. These examples showcase the power of leveraging data to understand consumer behavior and trends.
Consumer Resilience and Economic Trends
Michelle assesses the strength of the US consumer amidst challenges like high inflation and price fluctuations. She emphasizes the consumer's resilience, driven by factors such as a strong labor market, wage growth, and increased workforce participation. Despite facing price increases in certain sectors, consumers have shown selectivity in their spending decisions, adapting to changing economic conditions.
A Wall Street economist who served institutional clients at both Lehman Brothers and Bank of America, Michelle Meyer, transitioned to Mastercard two and a half years ago, now serving as the firm’s Chief Economist and Head of the Mastercard Economics Institute. I had the opportunity to catch up with Michelle back in May and while much has of course happened in the world since, there are some valuable insights shared in our discussion.
We first survey the similarities and differences in her new role at Mastercard versus the traditional sell-side economics role in which she served. Here, she says that in terms of process, markets were formerly the output but are now more of an input that informs her thinking on longer horizon economic trends and their implications. The audience, of course, is different as well, and hedge funds eager for insights on the most recent econ data release are not the priority they once were.
We spend the bulk of our conversation on the vast and rich data set of transactions being generated by Mastercard in real time and around the globe. Michelle and team harness this anonymized data to better understand consumer trends – in travel, in good versus services, across geographies, even across zip codes. On this last part, we talk about two “hyper-local” surges in demand captured by the data – the Swift Lift coming from Taylor Swift concerts and the increased demand along the April solar eclipse line of totality. Really fascinating data. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Michelle Meyer.
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