Will Israel's war spread north? The view from Lebanon with Kim Ghattas
Dec 19, 2023
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Beirut-based journalist and analyst Kim Ghattas provides insights on the potential spread of Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East. The podcast explores the tension between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, Lebanon's anxiety about the consequences of war, and the need for diplomacy to lower tensions in the region.
The potential spread of the Israel-Hamas war to Lebanon would have devastating consequences for a country already facing economic collapse and other crises.
Diplomatic negotiations and the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 are essential for reducing tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border.
Deep dives
The Impact of the Conflict on Lebanon
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is causing anxiety and devastation in Lebanon. While Lebanese people express their support for Palestinian civilians, they also fear the repercussions for their own country. There have been clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, which has been showing restraint and pragmatism. However, there are concerns that Israel may eventually strike Lebanon unless a diplomatic solution is found. There is a movement in Lebanon called Lebanon Against War, which aims to amplify the voices urging peace and expressing solidarity with Gaza.
The Lebanese Perspective on the Conflict
In Lebanon, there is a diverse population with different views on the conflict. While some Lebanese citizens understand Israel's response to the Hamas attack on October 7th, they are also deeply affected by the ongoing violence in Gaza. They recall past Israeli invasions and bombardments and the toll it took on Lebanon. People still feel a connection to the Palestinian cause and sympathize with the civilians in Gaza who are suffering. There is a hope for a diplomatic resolution to address the injustices and avoid further escalation.
Israel's Objectives and the Potential for Diplomacy
The Israeli government aims to destroy Hamas, but there is uncertainty about when and how this war will end. While Israel does not want to live next to a region controlled by Hamas, there are concerns about the high casualties on both sides and the possibility of devastation in Gaza without fully eradicating Hamas. International intervention and diplomatic negotiations may be necessary to find a humanitarian pause and decrease the intensity of military action. In Lebanon, there is a growing realization that a long-term solution requires diplomatic negotiations, including the full implementation of UN Resolution 1701 to reduce tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border. Iran's role is crucial, but direct involvement of Iran in peace talks is unlikely.
How likely is it that the Israel-Hamas war spreads into a wider conflict in the Middle East? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with author of Black Wave and Distinguished Fellow at Columbia’s Institute for Global Politics, Kim Ghattas for the on-the-ground perspective from across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Clashes between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, have been increasing on the border since the October 7th Hamas attacks and tensions in the region are extremely high. There’s a lot of anxiety in Lebanon right now about the potential for an Israeli strike, Ghattas explains, because of its history of Israeli invasion and the strength of Hezbollah, which has some 150,000 rockets and heavy duty weapons. Given that Lebanon is a country already reeling from economic collapse, a refugee crisis from Syria, a deadly 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut, and a massive currency devaluation, the consequences of war spreading across the Israeli border would be devastating for the country. Can diplomacy help lower tensions in the Middle East before simmering tensions boil over?