The Goals and Potential Outcomes of the Israel-Hamas War

How likely is it that the Israel-Hamas war spreads into a wider conflict in the Middle East? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with author of Black Wave and Distinguished Fellow at Columbia’s Institute for Global Politics, Kim Ghattas for the on-the-ground perspective from across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.   Clashes between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, have been increasing on the border since the October 7th Hamas attacks and tensions in the region are extremely high. There’s a lot of anxiety in Lebanon right now about the potential for an Israeli strike, Ghattas explains, because of its history of Israeli invasion and the strength of Hezbollah, which has some 150,000 rockets and heavy duty weapons. Given that Lebanon is a country already reeling from economic collapse, a refugee crisis from Syria, a deadly 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut, and a massive currency devaluation, the consequences of war spreading across the Israeli border would be devastating for the country. Can diplomacy help lower tensions in the Middle East before simmering tensions boil over?

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