Risk of Ruin

Waiting on Value

18 snips
Dec 26, 2023
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ANECDOTE

From Poker To Investing

  • Evan left poker for investing after online games worsened due to regulation and he was already investing his winnings.
  • He found value investing familiar because it mirrored poker's math and patient decision-making.
INSIGHT

Value Investing As Rational Play

  • Evan saw value investing as a rational framework akin to poker theory: estimate cash flows and ignore chart mumbo-jumbo.
  • That rational, math-driven approach attracted him away from heuristics and hype.
ADVICE

Widen Funnel, Narrow By Mistake

  • Keep a wide funnel of stock ideas using screens and following competitors, then narrow by valuation and a clear mistake others make.
  • Prefer 8–15x earnings where you can identify the behavioral bias causing the discount.
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