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Odd Lots

JPMorgan's Jay Barry on the Big Selloff in Bonds

Oct 11, 2023
32:09
Snipd AI
Exploring the causes and implications of the recent bond sell-off, including factors like increased growth and inflation expectations, the Bank of Japan's policy changes, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet policies. The concept of term premium and its impact on the bond market downturn is also discussed. Additionally, the podcast explores sentiment and demand in the bond market, the psychology of active managers, and observations on negativity towards bonds.
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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The recent bond market sell-off has been driven by positive US economic growth expectations and rising inflation, influenced by factors such as higher energy prices and Fed balance sheet reduction.
  • Analyzing bond market moves requires considering multiple factors like growth and inflation expectations, Fed policy, sentiment among investors, bond issuance, deficits, and the decline of price-insensitive buyers.

Deep dives

Factors Driving the Bond Sell-Off

The recent bond market sell-off has been driven by a confluence of factors. Initially, it was influenced by positive US economic growth expectations, which increased confidence in the economy and anchored higher levels of long-term rates. Additionally, inflation expectations have been rising, particularly in the context of higher energy prices and continued Fed balance sheet reduction. While there is no clear proximate cause for the sell-off, factors such as the recent FOMC meeting, oil prices, supply dynamics, and technical aspects have all been cited. The wider market implications and the need to understand the underlying dynamics of the sell-off have become increasingly important.

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