Jay Barry, Co-head of US interest rate strategy at JPMorgan Chase, dives into the recent turmoil in bond markets. He explains how soaring yields on US Treasuries are influenced by economic growth expectations, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's outlook. Barry discusses the complex interplay of supply and demand, and the crucial impact of term premium on investor behavior. As sentiments shift among investors, he sheds light on the awakening of bond vigilantes and what this means for the future of U.S. debt.
The recent bond market sell-off has been driven by positive US economic growth expectations and rising inflation, influenced by factors such as higher energy prices and Fed balance sheet reduction.
Analyzing bond market moves requires considering multiple factors like growth and inflation expectations, Fed policy, sentiment among investors, bond issuance, deficits, and the decline of price-insensitive buyers.
Deep dives
Factors Driving the Bond Sell-Off
The recent bond market sell-off has been driven by a confluence of factors. Initially, it was influenced by positive US economic growth expectations, which increased confidence in the economy and anchored higher levels of long-term rates. Additionally, inflation expectations have been rising, particularly in the context of higher energy prices and continued Fed balance sheet reduction. While there is no clear proximate cause for the sell-off, factors such as the recent FOMC meeting, oil prices, supply dynamics, and technical aspects have all been cited. The wider market implications and the need to understand the underlying dynamics of the sell-off have become increasingly important.
Analyzing Bond Market Moves
Analyzing the various drivers of bond market moves requires looking at multiple factors. A fair value model is used to assess the largest drivers of yields over time, such as growth expectations, inflation expectations, and Fed policy. Academic term structure models and survey-based measures of future policy rates are also considered. Sentiment among investors plays a significant role in shorter-term movements, and metrics like speculative positioning and interest rate futures can provide insights. Bond issuance and deficits are also important drivers, with recent increases in coupon auction sizes and concerns about the size of future deficits capturing attention.
Structural Factors Affecting Bond Demand
The decline of price-insensitive buyers, such as foreign central banks, US banks, and the Federal Reserve, has impacted bond demand. The reduction in foreign FX reserves and the slower growth of US bank deposits have contributed to a shift in demand. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction policies, coupled with balance sheet reductions by other central banks, are also influencing yield levels. However, attractive yield levels for diversified portfolios and pension funds' need to match long liabilities may contribute to continued demand for bonds.
Outlook for 2024
Looking ahead to 2024, it is expected that yields will stabilize and potentially fall slightly. Growth is forecasted to slow down, which, together with a Fed on hold and a gradual decrease in inflation, could support lower yields. However, the ongoing QT policy and the expectation of deficits over the next decade may keep rates elevated, even though the Fed is on hold. While bond demand may exist, stable returns are a key factor for attracting investors, and sentiment and flows will likely depend on the market stabilization and improved returns.
In the past week, the bond market has experienced a historic selloff. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries soared towards 4.9% while those on 30-year debt reached the highest since 2007. But the exact cause of these dramatic moves in the most important market in the world aren't entirely clear, with people looking at everything from the Federal Reserve's outlook for interest rates, to the the jump in the price of oil, or booming supply as the deficit expands, as well as more technical things like the term premium. So what's driving the selloff and how do we disaggregate interrelated things like supply and demand? How do you decompose longer-term and short-term factors feeding into the price of US Treasuries? What can stem the big moves? And what are investors saying about their appetite for US debt? We speak with Jay Barry, co-head of US interest rate strategy at JPMorgan Chase, about the big bond market selloff.