Politics on the Couch Red Wall, Blue Wall, Grey Area - a conversation about voter volatility with Professor Paula Surridge
Mar 5, 2025
In a thought-provoking conversation, Professor Paula Surridge, an expert in political sociology from the University of Bristol, discusses the increasing fragmentation of voter support in the UK since Brexit. She explores the rise of Reform UK and the vulnerabilities of its supporters. The role of tactical voting and how the Liberal Democrats are capitalizing on this shift is examined. Surridge also delves into the challenges the Conservative Party faces with its identity amid changing voter expectations and the impact of non-voters on the electoral landscape.
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Fragmented Politics Post-Brexit
- British politics shows increasing fragmentation beyond traditional Labour vs Conservative lines since 2015.
- Brexit restored some two-party competition, but underlying voter churn and fragmentation remain significant.
Beyond Leave-Remain Divide
- The Leave-Remain divide is less useful over time as a political descriptor in the UK.
- A cultural-political dimension beyond left-right economics better explains voter fragmentation.
Reform UK Voters Prioritize Immigration
- Reform UK voters mainly prioritize immigration reduction, especially illegal immigration.
- Distrust of major parties and Conservative failure on immigration drives Reform support.
