Topics discussed in this podcast include Biden's visit to Israel, Israel's potential ground invasion of Gaza, the devastating blast at al-Ahli Arab Hospital, escalating violence in the West Bank, the exchange of fire between Israeli army and Hizbollah, and the potential dangers in the Middle East region.
The war in Gaza has four main objectives for Israel: toppling Hamas, eliminating terrorism, resolving hostage issues, and defending its borders and citizens.
Hezbollah's recent attacks on an Israeli military post in the disputed Shebaa Farms area have escalated tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, posing wider regional implications and raising concerns in Iraq, Syria, and the potential US involvement.
Deep dives
Ongoing violence in Gaza escalates tensions
The war in Gaza continues, with Israel carrying out heavy bombardment and Hamas launching rocket attacks. The death toll is rising, with hundreds of Gazans, mostly civilians, reported killed. Israel has laid out four objectives for its military campaign: toppling Hamas, eliminating terrorism, resolving hostage issues, and defending its borders and citizens. The situation is increasingly precarious, with the risk of unintentional escalation. The US, while expressing support for Israel, faces challenges in managing the regional implications of the conflict.
Hezbollah's role in the Israel-Lebanon border clashes
Hezbollah's recent attacks on an Israeli military post in the disputed Shebaa Farms area have escalated tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border. Both sides seek to avoid all-out war but are caught in a cycle of tit-for-tat exchanges. The situation could escalate further due to unintended incidents or deliberate actions. Hezbollah's red lines include massive population displacement and the complete destruction of Hamas. The deployment of US carrier strike forces in the region may not effectively deter Hezbollah, whose rocket arsenal poses a significant threat to Israeli infrastructure.
Regional dangers and implications
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel could have wider regional implications. The main concerns lie in Iraq, Syria, and potential US involvement. If the situation escalates, American forces in Iraq could become targets due to the interconnectedness of various theaters of conflict. The response of the US, especially if Hezbollah inflicts significant damage on Israel, remains uncertain. While there is a willingness to be tough on Iran, a full-scale war is unlikely to be supported. The central question is whether the US will limit its response to Hezbollah or target Iran as the center of the resistance axis.
Ceasefire and diplomatic efforts
International calls for a ceasefire grow in response to the escalating violence. The Crisis Group has also called for a pause in the fighting to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid and efforts towards a diplomatic solution. The likelihood of achieving a ceasefire or any immediate political resolution remains uncertain. Diplomatic efforts would need to address Israel's concerns about Hamas and the potential for post-conflict governance in Gaza. A delicate balance must be struck between deterrence and avoiding further civilian casualties.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher, Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen to discuss what has happened over the past week in Gaza and where the war might be headed. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about Biden’s visit to Israel this week, Israel’s looming ground invasion of Gaza and whether the devastating blast at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, for which responsibility remains unclear, might change calculations in Israel or Washington. He then talks with Tahani about escalating violence in the West Bank and risks of further worsening bloodshed. He and Heiko discuss the continuing exchange of fire between the Israeli army and Lebanese militant group Hizbollah at the Israel-Lebanon border and what might trigger a further escalation there and further afield.
For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest statement A Ceasefire in Gazaand our Israel/Palestine page.