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The speaker emphasizes that the macro economy moves slower than people think, taking years to play out. It is not as fast-paced as day-to-day expectations may indicate. The macro economy is influenced by factors such as interest rates, lending behavior, and spending decisions. Understanding the slower pace of the macro economy helps put current economic conditions into context.
The podcast episode discusses investment philosophy and portfolio construction. It highlights the importance of macroeconomic drivers and fundamental cause-effect relationships in influencing macro asset market returns. Balancing portfolios in different macroeconomic environments is crucial. Beta, which includes passive index-style investing, focuses on balancing portfolios to align with macroeconomic conditions. Alpha, on the other hand, involves taking bets in the market based on the macroeconomic drivers relative to market prices.
The podcast suggests that the investment regime may be shifting in the 2020s compared to previous decades. The recent change in the inflation landscape, along with factors like growth and monetary policy, signal a potential shift in investment dynamics. Investors need to consider the impact of these changes on asset allocation and risk management. Understanding the potential implications of a new investment regime can help investors protect their wealth and make informed decisions.
The podcast explores the importance of portfolio diversification and highlights the role of gold as a potential asset class. Gold is presented as a diversifier that can perform well during stock market downturns. Its historical capacity to act as a tail risk hedge in the face of inflationary and geopolitical concerns is emphasized. Despite its lack of yield, gold is viewed as a valuable financial asset that has demonstrated solid risk-adjusted returns throughout different market cycles.
The speaker views Bitcoin as a growth venture type asset due to its innovative technology and potential future use cases. The comparison is made to buying a small share of the overall system, similar to buying a share of the internet in the 90s. While the speaker acknowledges Bitcoin's characteristics of gold, it is seen more as a venture bet rather than a macro asset. The speaker emphasizes the importance of being prudent and not allocating 100% of one's capital to Bitcoin.
The speaker points out the need for more clarity on Bitcoin's performance as a contract currency asset in relation to macro economic outcomes. The speaker believes that there should be a stronger relationship between certain macro properties and Bitcoin serving as a contract currency. Currently, the speaker observes that Bitcoin's price is driven by micro dynamics and idiosyncratic factors, making its correlation with macro assets relatively low. While the speaker recognizes the value of Bitcoin as an option with potential future success, it is important to assess its risks and not allocate a portfolio entirely to Bitcoin.
On this episode of Swan Signal, Sam sat down with Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited and Former Investment Committee Member of Bridgewater Associates. They talk about how to preserve your wealth in the 2020’s, current market dynamics, and how a spot Bitcoin ETF could impact Bitcoin moving forward.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 “Swan Signal Live” Intro
00:01:50 Introducing “Bob Elliott” and His Background in Investing
00:04:58 Investing Philosophy at “Bridgewater Associates”
00:09:16 Are we Entering a New Investing Regime?
00:12:10 Why Does “Nominal Wage Growth” Matter?
00:13:33 “Unemployment Rate”
00:18:50 How Interest Rates Effect Borrowing/Lending
00:19:44 Global-Contagion-Effect of Defaulted Mortgages
00:21:48 Sovereign Debt
00:26:52 Treasury & Bond Market, and Positioning for a Recession
00:37:50 “60/40 Portfolio” - Diversifying For the Future
00:41:04 “Let’s Talk about Gold”
00:45:20 Counterparty Risks with Gold
00:47:16 Are you Surprised by Gold’s Performance?
00:50:21 “Let’s Talk about Bitcoin”
00:55:14 Bitcoin Lifecycle, and How it Responds to Inflationary Pressures
00:59:00 “Getting Off Zero”
01:05:00 What Bob is Building at “Unlimited,” and his thoughts on the Bitcoin ETF
01:09:30 How “ETF’s” Help Consumers
01:11:27 Benefits of the “Bitcoin ETF” for Consumers
01:17:41 How to Connect with “Bob Elliott”
01:18:25 “Swan Signal Live” Outro
Connect with Alex and Bob:
Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallah
Bob Elliott: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
"Nakamoto Portfolio Theory:" https://nakamotoportfolio.com
"Welcome to Bitcoin"
A FREE 1-hour course hosted by Natalie Brunell, perfect for helping you to orange-pill family members over the holidays at https://Swan.com/welcome
Connect with Swan Bitcoin:
YouTube: https://youtube.com/@Swan_Bitcoin
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan
Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin
Telegram: https://t.me/swanbitcoin
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin
Swan Bitcoin does not provide any investment, financial, tax, legal or other professional advice. We recommend that you consult with financial and tax advisors to understand the risks and consequences of buying, selling and holding Bitcoin.
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