Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Brady and John explore the sluggish performance of Bitcoin in 2025, highlighting a 'crab market' and examining why public expectations are often misaligned. They dive into the roots of the HODL meme and how it underscores the need for long-term investment discipline. The discussion turns to Bitcoin's relationship with gold, ETF flows, and why patience is a key edge for investors. They also critique the push for universal stock ownership and analyze current fiscal deficits and market dynamics, bringing a mix of humor and insights throughout.

Bitcoin's price fluctuates around $90k, prompting a discussion on the impact of institutional buyers dampening traditional boom/bust cycles. Insights into an elongated market cycle suggest future price targets could hit $150k-$200k. The Fed's 'not-QE' actions spark debates on monetary policy and its implications. Meanwhile, BitGo's national trust bank approval highlights advances in digital asset custody. The show reflects on Do Kwon's sentencing and Bitcoin's unique leaderless structure, emphasizing its resilience against scams.

Cory Klippsten, Founder and CEO of Swan, dives into the current macro landscape and contrasts it with the Bitcoin hype of 2021. He discusses the shift in institutional sentiment, highlighting major players like Larry Fink and Harvard as long-term Bitcoin advocates. Cory critiques prediction markets and the gambling culture surrounding crypto, suggesting many may ultimately find refuge in Bitcoin's stability. He also explores Bitcoin's potential as an energy resource, turning excess energy into a universal monetary battery, while maintaining confidence in a bullish future.

Jeff Booth, author and entrepreneur focused on monetary economics, dives into the transformative potential of Bitcoin as a vehicle for a true free market. He discusses how fiat systems are built on inflationary debt, leading to centralization and surveillance. Booth believes that advancements in AI and technology could drive deflation if aligned with Bitcoin systems. Using El Salvador as an example, he illustrates the societal benefits of Bitcoin adoption while also addressing security concerns and the importance of privacy technologies.

Brady shares the upbeat atmosphere from Bitcoin Amsterdam, highlighting strong community morale despite price fluctuations. The discussion reveals how historical trends show price can diverge from fundamentals. Inflation impacts come to light as the penny disappears and U.S. interest expenses surge. The Czech National Bank's Bitcoin investment sets a significant precedent. Major news includes SoFi's crypto banking app and Square's milestone enabling Bitcoin payments at millions of merchants, marking a leap in adoption.

Lyn Alden, a renowned macro investor and author, joins to unpack Bitcoin's current dynamics. She discusses the significance of macro conditions over halvings in influencing prices and compares today's economic landscape to that of 2021. With a mild recession risk on the horizon, Lyn offers insight into Bitcoin’s behavior as a large-cap asset and addresses the implications of institutional rebalancing. Additionally, she critiques France's proposed wealth tax, asserting Bitcoin's role as productive monetary savings, urging listeners to stay educated on these vital topics.

Phil Champagne, author of The Book of Satoshi, joins to celebrate White Paper Day Eve and discuss newly released emails from early Bitcoin contributors. He reveals insights into Satoshi Nakamoto’s motivations and his groundbreaking approach to digital currency. The conversation dives into Bitcoin's early community dynamics, strategies for overcoming skepticism, and Satoshi’s genius in solving the Byzantine Generals Problem. Champagne emphasizes the importance of Satoshi's disappearance to Bitcoin's decentralization and reflects on how Bitcoin will tackle modern challenges.

Vijay Boyapati, an author and Bitcoin advocate, dives deep into Bitcoin’s potential as pristine collateral during a lively discussion. He explains JP Morgan’s move towards crypto-backed loans, highlighting Bitcoin's unique advantages—no counterparty risk and global liquidity. The conversation explores how Bitcoin has evolved from niche adoption to institutional acceptance, while also comparing Bitcoin’s rising value against gold. Vijay weighs in on generational wealth disparities, inflation's impact on different age groups, and the macroeconomic future of the U.S.

Bitcoin dropped to $106K after a sudden Friday sell-off, triggering panic across crypto markets—but Swan’s team remained calm, stressing the long-term thesis is unchanged.John Haar and Isaiah noted that Bitcoin fell just 10% while altcoins crashed 50–90%, underscoring Bitcoin’s liquidity and resilience.The team compared the pullback to past cycles, arguing this is not a cycle top but typical mid-bull market volatility.Discussion on Fed Chair Powell signaling an end to QT and potential rate cuts—seen as a tailwind for Bitcoin as monetary easing returns.John highlighted data showing Bitcoin rose 750% during the Fed’s tightening cycle, disproving the myth that Bitcoin only thrives under easy money.A deep dive into the Fed’s balance sheet showed that long-dated Treasury holdings have never decreased since 2008, signaling systemic dependence on debt monetization.Chamath Palihapitiya’s claim that quantum computing could break Bitcoin in 2–5 years was debunked—experts and developers agree it’s decades away and Bitcoin can adapt.The team explored how AI could reshape the economy, potentially displacing workers and pushing governments toward UBI—but also creating new industries and efficiencies.Brady and John debated whether UBI could be socially beneficial or harmful; both agreed Bitcoin offers protection in any fiat debasement scenario.The show wrapped with reactions to Larry Fink’s 60 Minutes appearance comparing Bitcoin to gold and Elon Musk’s recent positive Bitcoin comments. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

The team jokes about “Bitcoin being dead again” after Trump’s new tariff threats against China tanked markets and briefly pulled Bitcoin to $117K.They analyze Trump’s tariff negotiation style, calling it political theater and a dip-buying opportunity for “active tariff dip buyers.”Discussion on Core V30 debates—Bitcoiners fighting among themselves as a “bear market signal,” contrasting with the historic block size wars.VJ Boyapati’s chart shows long consolidation phases in this cycle—evidence of healthier, institutional-driven adoption rather than retail mania.Gold hits $4,000/oz, outperforming U.S. stocks; the hosts link gold’s run to the global debasement trade and rising mainstream awareness of sound money.John Haar highlights that despite 40-year-high inflation, global debt-to-GDP barely fell, reinforcing the inevitability of fiscal dominance and currency debasement.Paul Tudor Jones reaffirms Bitcoin as the “fastest horse,” signaling institutional confidence alongside gold.Morgan Stanley opens Bitcoin access to wealth clients—another milestone in mainstream financial adoption.Square launches zero-fee Bitcoin payment integration for merchants, advancing Bitcoin’s medium-of-exchange use case.Discussion closes on Lightning yield experiments (8–9% APY) and Luxembourg’s sovereign Bitcoin purchase, showcasing Bitcoin’s expanding financial utility and global reach. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.