Fiona Cunningham, a Political Science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, discusses her book on China’s nuclear strategy. Michael Horowitz, also from Penn and a former Defense official, co-hosts the conversation. They dive into how China balances military force with political goals without escalating to nuclear warfare. The guests also highlight China’s evolving defense strategies, including the significance of their 'no first use' nuclear policy and the development of advanced cyber and counter-space capabilities in response to U.S. actions.
The study of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is vital for understanding China's strategic military evolution and its implications for global stability.
Open-source PLA documents provide critical insights into Chinese defense strategies, albeit with challenges due to the secretive nature of military operations.
China's military modernization reflects a shift from nuclear strategies to advanced conventional weapons, enhancing its deterrent capabilities in regional conflicts.
The historical no first use nuclear policy of China may be reconsidered as geopolitical tensions escalate, highlighting evolving security dynamics.
Deep dives
Importance of PLA Studies
Studying the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is crucial due to its potential for conflict with the United States, which holds significant implications for global stability. Understanding the PLA's role as a key domestic actor, it is essentially an armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party, thereby influencing internal politics and governance. This understanding of the military's functionality aids in comprehending China's strategic thinking and military evolution, specifically regarding its war plans and weaponry development processes. Analyzing the PLA is therefore essential not only for anticipating conflict scenarios but also for fostering better communication and conflict prevention strategies among nations.
Challenges in Open Source Research
Studying the PLA presents significant challenges due to the opaque nature of its operations and decision-making processes, particularly regarding nuclear capabilities. While certain aspects can be discerned through its public communication and literature, many details about warfare strategies and specific weapon systems remain elusive. Researchers must navigate these limitations while utilizing available open-source materials, such as doctrine publications and teachings within the PLA itself, to gain insights. Nonetheless, some gaps may persist due to the inherently secretive nature of military planning within a one-party state.
Chinese Defense Analysts Compared to Western Counterparts
The difference in the military learning environments between the U.S. and China highlights varying incentives for defense analysts. While the U.S. focuses on understanding its adversaries, Chinese analysts invest significant resources into studying and learning from the United States, which is viewed as a model for military effectiveness. The lack of recent battlefield experience for China complicates this relationship; instead of drawing lessons directly from combat, Chinese analysts focus on strategies observed during previous conflicts involving the U.S. and its allies. As a result, analysts from China emphasize understanding American operational art while the U.S. attempts to glean insights from theoretical frameworks.
Trends in China's Military Modernization
China's military modernization has evolved in response to various external pressures, particularly its interactions with the United States and regional conflicts. Since the Gulf War, China has been adopting modern military technologies and strategies, shifting its focus from nuclear doctrines to more conventional weapons and capabilities. The lessons learned from recent military engagements, along with an improved understanding of advanced technologies, have prompted China to enhance its missile capabilities, cyber capabilities, and space operations. This modernization is strategically targeted at ensuring credibility in deterrent measures while achieving specific military objectives in local conflicts.
The Role of Non-Nuclear Weapons
China has strategically developed non-nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence and coercion against adversaries, particularly in the context of regional conflicts. This shift reflects an understanding of the limitations of pure nuclear strategies in modern warfare, emphasizing the utility of precision-guided conventional weapons. The deployment of advanced capabilities, such as short-range ballistic missiles and cyber operations, addresses the need for coercive leverage without escalating to nuclear exchanges. Additionally, these non-nuclear options allow China to maintain a credible deterrent while managing fears of nuclear conflict, effectively influencing adversary behavior without crossing the nuclear threshold.
Perspective on Nuclear Policy
China's no first use policy has historically constrained its nuclear posture, positioning its nuclear arsenals primarily as deterrents against nuclear attacks. This policy stems from leadership perspectives that prioritize survival in conventional conflicts rather than the initiation of nuclear warfare. However, as geopolitical tensions escalate, discussions within China have emerged regarding potential adjustments to this policy, driven by evolving perceptions of credible adversaries. These dynamics highlight the need for scholars to analyze changing doctrines in the context of modern threats while understanding the deep-rooted institutional and historical influences on Chinese nuclear strategy.
Future Implications of China's Military Strategies
The rapid advancements in China's military capabilities underscore a strategic imperative to maintain relevance and competitive advantage in the face of American military supremacy. The integration of advanced technologies, including hypersonics and AI in military operations, indicates a shift toward a more assertive posture in regional security dynamics. As China seeks to project power and deter potential adversaries, its military evolution raises significant implications for global security, particularly regarding Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region. Future military strategies will likely reflect an increased reliance on both conventional and non-conventional deterrents as the PLA continues to evolve in adaptative response to U.S. military developments.
Can China use military force to achieve its political goals, without triggering nuclear war? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Fiona Cunningham, a professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and author of the new book, Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information-Age Weapons in International Security.
Co-hosting today is Michael Horowitz, another Penn professor who served in Biden’s Department of Defense.
We discuss…
How to use open source PLA documents to conduct deep research,
The evolution of Chinese defense strategy, including the impact of the third Taiwan Strait crisis,
Nuclear modernization and China’s “no first use” policy,
How the PLA makes decisions, including why they chose to develop cyber capabilities, anti-satellite weapons, and hypersonic missiles over proposed alternatives.
Outtro Music: Beauty by Gui Bian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTlfSOCwYJ8
