In 'Fooled by Randomness', Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the pervasive influence of chance and randomness in our lives and financial markets. The book argues that humans tend to underestimate the role of luck and overestimate the role of skill, leading to biases such as hindsight bias, survivorship bias, and the narrative fallacy. Taleb emphasizes the importance of recognizing and coping with uncertainty, and he critiques the tendency to seek deterministic explanations for random events. The book is part of Taleb's Incerto series, which also includes 'The Black Swan', 'The Bed of Procrustes', 'Antifragile', and 'Skin in the Game'.
In this book, Daniel Kahneman takes readers on a tour of the mind, explaining how the two systems of thought shape our judgments and decisions. System 1 is fast, automatic, and emotional, while System 2 is slower, effortful, and logical. Kahneman discusses the impact of cognitive biases, the difficulties of predicting future happiness, and the effects of overconfidence on corporate strategies. He offers practical insights into how to guard against mental glitches and how to benefit from slow thinking in both personal and business life. The book also explores the distinction between the 'experiencing self' and the 'remembering self' and their roles in our perception of happiness.
The Big Short tells the story of the 2007-08 financial crisis through the lens of several key players who predicted and profited from the collapse of the housing market. The book focuses on characters such as Steve Eisman, Mike Burry, Greg Lippmann, and the founders of Cornwall Capital, who saw the impending disaster and made significant gains by shorting the market. Lewis explains the complex financial instruments and the systemic failures that led to the crisis, making the narrative both accessible and engaging.
In 'Antifragile', Nassim Nicholas Taleb delves into the concept of antifragility, arguing that some systems not only withstand stress and disorder but actually benefit from them. The book builds on ideas from his previous works, such as 'Fooled by Randomness' and 'The Black Swan', and is part of his five-volume philosophical treatise on uncertainty, 'Incerto'. Taleb provides examples from various fields, including science, economics, and history, to illustrate how antifragility can be achieved and how it contrasts with fragility and robustness. He also discusses strategies like the barbell strategy and optionality, and critiques modern society's attempts to eliminate volatility, which he believes are harmful. The book is praised for its revolutionary ideas and multidisciplinary approach, though it has also received criticism for its style and some of the author's views on mental health and other topics.
Spanning thirty years, 'Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow' by Gabrielle Zevin is a sweeping narrative that explores the lives of Sam and Sadie, two friends united by their love of video games. From their childhood encounters to their adulthood as successful game developers, the book delves into themes of identity, creativity, disability, and the redemptive possibilities in play. It is a coming-of-age story that examines the multifaceted nature of human relationships and the need to connect, love, and be loved. The novel is praised for its mature and nuanced portrayal of characters and its ability to engage readers even without prior knowledge of the video game industry.
In 'The Dao of Capital', Mark Spitznagel presents a unique investment methodology that blends Daoist principles with the Austrian School of economics. The book takes readers on a journey through various historical and geographical contexts, from the Chicago trading pits to ancient China and 19th-century Austria, to illustrate the roundabout approach of seeking intermediate positional advantages rather than direct gains. Spitznagel emphasizes the importance of understanding markets as a process and the need to see time differently, highlighting the counterintuitive nature of Austrian investing where one gains by losing and loses by gaining. The foreword by Ron Paul adds additional insights into the application of Austrian economics in investment strategies.
The Black Swan is a landmark book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that investigates the phenomenon of highly improbable events with massive impacts. These events, termed Black Swans, are unpredictable, have a significant impact, and are rationalized after the fact to appear less random. Taleb argues that humans are hardwired to focus on specifics rather than generalities, leading to a failure to consider what we don’t know. The book delves into cognitive biases, the limitations of mathematical models, and the importance of robustness and antifragility in navigating a world filled with uncertainty. The second edition includes a new essay, 'On Robustness and Fragility,' offering tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Human Action is Ludwig von Mises' magnum opus, where he defends an a priori foundation for praxeology and methodological individualism. The book argues that the free-market economy outdistances any government-planned system and serves as the foundation of civilization. Mises explains complex market phenomena as the outcomes of countless conscious, purposive actions and choices of individuals. He critiques government attempts to regulate and control economic activities, emphasizing the futility and counter-productiveness of such interventions. The book is a systematic treatment of the whole body of social and economic relations, integrating various economic problems into a comprehensive system[2][4][5].
In 'Economics in One Lesson', Henry Hazlitt provides a concise and instructive introduction to economics by dissecting common economic fallacies. The book's central lesson is that good economics involves considering the long-term and indirect consequences of any policy for all groups, not just the immediate effects on a specific group. Hazlitt uses examples like the 'broken window fallacy' to illustrate how focusing only on immediate benefits can overlook the broader, often negative, consequences. The book advocates for free markets, economic liberty, and non-governmental solutions, making it a critical read for understanding basic economic principles and the pitfalls of government intervention[1][4][5].
What I learned from reading The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World by Mark Spitznagel.
Klipp's Paradox (0:01)
the whole point of my approach to investing is that we must be willing to adopt the indirect route to achieve our goals (14:00)
finding his life's work (19:00)
if my children will only read one book on economics I would be Economics in One Lesson (25:30)
why it is always possible to start new, successful companies (30:00)
the point is not to go slow to stay glow. it is to go slow now so you can go faster later (34:15)
Robinson Crusoe and roundabout production (39:30)
Henry Ford as the quintessential roundabout entrepreneur (45:00)
how Mark uses roundabout in his investing (54:00)
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