The Futurists Machine Forecasting
Jul 18, 2025
Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of FutureSearch.ai, discusses the future of AI-powered forecasting. He reveals how hybrid human-AI systems are surpassing traditional methods, while pure AI approaches still struggle. Topics include the potential pitfalls of AI predictions and the surprising long-term implications for industries. Dan emphasizes the need for a blend of human insight and machine intelligence to enhance accuracy, explore the concept of collective intelligence, and navigate the complexities of forecasting in technology.
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AI-Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy
- FutureSearch uses AI combined with human judgment to forecast by triangulating data and making probabilistic inferences.
- Their forecasts on OpenAI's business model proved accurate, showing AI's potential in insightful forecasting.
AI's Reasoning and Credibility Limits
- Current AI models still struggle with reliable reasoning and source credibility, often citing disinformation despite acknowledging it.
- AI today requires better elicitation and epistemic rigor to mimic trustworthy human reasoning.
Improving Forecast Trustworthiness
- Forecast accuracy improves with probabilistic scenarios, quantitative backing, and trusting forecasters with proven track records.
- Many pundits remain wrong but unaccountable, whereas forecasting efforts seek transparency and accountability.
