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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

US presidential elections outlook: Implications for policy and markets

Jan 9, 2024
Goldman Sachs' Joe Wall and Alec Phillips discuss the implications of the US presidential elections on policies and markets, including analyzing potential threats to Trump's nomination, exploring the impact of Trump's legal cases, key issues for voters, election year market dynamics, and potential volatility.
27:06

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The primary season in the US presidential election is a pivotal moment in determining the candidates and has significant implications for policies and markets.
  • The economy, inflation, and voter concerns about the direction of the country are key issues that may have a greater impact on the election outcome compared to other topics like crime, immigration, and abortion.

Deep dives

Importance of Primary Season and Candidates Watched

The podcast episode discusses the upcoming US presidential election and the significance of the primary season. It is mentioned that President Biden is likely to secure the Democratic nomination, while former President Trump is expected to be the Republican nominee. The primary season is crucial in determining the candidates, and specific focus is given to Iowa and New Hampshire as the initial contests. Nikki Haley's chances of being a genuine threat to Trump's nomination are also analyzed, with winning in New Hampshire and her home state being key factors. The impact of legal cases on the nomination process and election is debated, with some arguing that it has not affected Trump's support significantly. Overall, the primary season is presented as a pivotal moment in the presidential race.

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