IFS Zooms In: The Economy
The economic picture facing the Chancellor
Oct 18, 2023
Deputy Director at IFS and Chief UK Economist at Citigroup discuss the economic situation facing the Chancellor in the upcoming Autumn Statement. They analyze the UK's economic performance before and during the pandemic, concerns of monetary policy makers, challenges of high debt and dependence on house prices, macroeconomic context, and impact on disposable income.
44:47
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Quick takeaways
- The UK's GDP growth has underperformed the US but outperformed the Euro area over the last decade.
- The UK is facing a potential recession within the next 12 months due to increasing interest rates and weakened corporate margins and household demand.
Deep dives
UK's Economic Performance Comparison
Over the last decade, the UK's aggregate GDP growth has outperformed the Euro area but lagged behind the US. On a per capita basis, the UK has performed better than the Euro area but worse than the US. However, the recent trend shows a deceleration in per worker output and a weaker GDP per capita compared to pre-pandemic levels, putting the UK as an underperformer overall.
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