IFS Zooms In: The Economy

The NHS holds a unique place in British life: a source of national pride, and the single biggest public service in England. This year it’s set to cost over £200 billion, around £3,500 per person, more than we spend on education, defence, justice and transport combined. And yet, despite sustained funding increases and around a quarter of a million more staff than in 2019, concerns about performance haven’t gone away.Labour came into office promising to get a grip on record waiting times, but progress so far looks limited. The waiting list stands at 7.3 million, only slightly down from around 7.6 million when the government took office a year and a half ago. With winter pressures, flu surges, and resident doctors taking strike action, it raises a big question: what’s actually going on inside the system, and is improvement realistically on the horizon?In this episode, Helen is joined by IFS colleagues Olly Harvey-Rich and Max Warner to unpack the data and the trade-offs. We look at winter pressures and capacity, what the latest performance metrics tell us, and the real constraints facing the NHS in England - money, productivity and system design. Finally, we look ahead to the rest of the parliament: should we be hopeful about meaningful change, or are the obstacles bigger than the plans?Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Moving into 2026, the government faces a critical period of delivery. After 18 months in power and several major fiscal events behind them, the focus is shifting from setting policy to seeing it through. However, with unemployment reaching 5.1% and a series of high-stakes reviews underway, the road ahead remains complex.In this episode, we are joined by Christine Farquharson and Tom Waters to examine the economic landscape for the year ahead. We look at the rising pressures on the public purse, from health-related benefits to the "national conversation" on SEND, and ask what the upcoming fiscal events might reveal about the government’s long-term strategy. We also look at what could shift the outlook, for better or worse, from public sector productivity to the economic impact of new technologies like AI and GLP-1 drugs.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stuart Adam, a Senior researcher at the Institute for Fiscal Studies with expertise in tax design, joins to dissect nuanced changes in the government’s Budget. They discuss the rationale behind upfront EV grants despite plans for a per-mile tax, and how this aims to manage congestion. Salary sacrifice limits and their potential impact on saving behaviors are also examined. The conversation further explores the implications of increased capital income tax, cuts to cash ISAs, and reforms affecting entrepreneurship, revealing a complex landscape of minor yet significant tax modifications.

Ben Zaranko and Christine Farquharson, both esteemed economists from the IFS, delve into the surprises of the recent Autumn Budget. They discuss why the anticipated fiscal repair didn’t materialize, spotlighting a fortunate rise in tax receipts. Christine highlights significant reforms, such as abolishing the two-child limit and increasing funding for special educational needs. They also explore new policies, including a mansion surcharge and the impacts of a fuel duty freeze, ultimately questioning the budget’s long-term growth strategy.

Ben Zaranko and Tom Waters from the Institute for Fiscal Studies dive into the complexities of public spending and potential cuts. They highlight how the £1.3 trillion budget is allocated, detailing pressures from an ageing population and health care costs. The duo discusses strategies for reducing welfare spending, including altering the Universal Credit system. They explore the trade-offs between cutting costs and maintaining service quality, revealing the political challenges that accompany any significant changes. Tune in for insightful takes on the future of public finances!

Jack Meaning, Chief Economist at Barclays, and Ben Zaranko, Lead Researcher on Public Finances at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, delve into the complexities of the UK bond market. They discuss how government borrowing has surged post-pandemic and the shifting landscape of gilt investors. The duo reflects on the impact of the controversial Liz Truss mini-budget, investor confidence, and the implications for fiscal credibility. As government debt becomes costlier, they explore how upcoming budget decisions might influence economic growth and living standards.

Stuart Adam, a seasoned tax policy expert at IFS, and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates, delve into strategies for raising tax revenue ahead of the Chancellor's Budget. They explore the potential of income tax increases and the implications of freezing thresholds, while debating the fairness of taxing partnerships and reforming self-employed tax bases. The conversation touches on the complexities of landlord taxation and ideas for pension tax reform, ultimately advocating for coherent long-term tax reforms to improve revenue without harming the economy.

In this insightful discussion, tax policy expert Stuart Adam shares his expertise on the complexities of the UK's VAT system, exposing bizarre distinctions like the differing tax treatment of chocolate-covered and plain shortbread. He and co-host Ben Zarenko dive into the reasons economists favor VAT, while addressing its inefficiencies and regressivity misconceptions. The two explore the challenges of zero rates, exemptions, and how VAT reform could create a fairer tax landscape. Stuart emphasizes the need for broadening the VAT base to enhance efficiency and fairness.

Stuart Adam, an expert in housing taxation, is joined by IFS economist Ben Zaranko to tackle the complexities of the UK's property tax system. They delve into the absurdities of council tax based on outdated 1991 valuations and discuss how stamp duty discourages home moving, impacting housing allocation. The conversation highlights the need for reforms, such as a proportional council tax that could replace both council tax and stamp duty, ensuring fairness and efficiency in property taxation for all.

Joining the discussion are Stuart Adam, a Senior IFS economist known for his detailed analysis on taxation, and Ben Zaranko, an IFS researcher who makes complex topics more accessible. They delve into the contentious world of wealth taxation, examining why investment income is often taxed less than salaries. The pair highlight the challenges of implementing a wealth tax, including valuation issues and potential avoidance. They also explore the flaws in the UK's inheritance tax system, suggesting reforms to enhance equity and reduce evasion.