The Julia La Roche Show
#249 Dr. Gary Shilling On Tariffs, Impending Recession, And Why He's Still Betting on the Dollar & Treasuries
Apr 19, 2025
Dr. Gary Shilling, a renowned economist and President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., offers intriguing insights into the current economic landscape. He discusses the likelihood of an impending recession and how Trump's tariffs are complicating global trade dynamics. Despite these challenges, he expresses confidence in the safety of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. Shilling also highlights the potential for Indian stocks over Chinese investments and advocates for maintaining strong balance sheets to navigate economic uncertainty.
43:21
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Quick takeaways
- Dr. Shilling predicts an impending recession driven by tariff disruptions and economic vulnerabilities, urging a focus on safe investments like U.S. Treasuries.
- He highlights India's emerging market potential due to its democratic governance and technological advancements, positioning it as a preferable investment over China.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade
Tariffs are identified as disruptive forces in the economy, fundamentally altering the landscape of global trade relations. The discussion emphasizes how the U.S. historically maintained lower tariffs to support other nations' economic growth, resulting in significant trade imbalances and the erosion of domestic manufacturing. Recent shifts in U.S. trade policy, particularly under Trump's administration, are seen as an effort to rectify these imbalances by leveraging America's position as the primary consumer in global trade. Notably, this transition has prompted reactions from other countries, such as China, showing a willingness to negotiate given their economic vulnerabilities.
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