Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling
01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II
03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing
04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade
06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate
09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities
12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook
17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs
19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies
20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership
24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook
26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions
29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities
32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends
33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status
36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies
39:43 - Contact information and subscription details
40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"
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