Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast The Great BTN Bake (Take) Off — GenAI Trends for 2026: Google Overtakes OpenAI and an AI Reality Check Looms Large | Behind the Numbers
Jan 9, 2026
Nate Elliott, a Principal AI analyst, and Jacob Bourne, a Senior Analyst specializing in AI and tech, dive deep into the future of artificial intelligence. They discuss why Google might surpass OpenAI by 2026, citing Google's extensive product reach and user base. Jacob warns of potential constraints on the AI boom, highlighting energy shortages and infrastructure issues. The pair also explore the implications of regulation and the financial fragility of smaller AI firms, making for a thought-provoking conversation on the industry's evolution.
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Google's Distribution Advantage
- Google already has massive distribution that can convert users into AI adopters at scale.
- Nate Elliott predicts that reach plus improving quality will let Google overtake OpenAI by end of 2026.
Physical Limits Will Slow Expansion
- The AI boom faces structural limits like energy, component shortages, and infrastructure timelines.
- Jacob Bourne expects these constraints to throttle rapid expansion through 2026.
Huge Untapped Consumer AI Audience
- Most users still don't use AI regularly, leaving huge headroom for whoever leverages existing platforms.
- Nate argues Google can flip many search users into AI mode and rapidly grow consumer AI usage.