Francis Fukuyama, a renowned political scientist and author, joins editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan to dive into the current crises facing global democracy amid Donald Trump’s potential return. They discuss the backlash against the status quo and explore how economic dissatisfaction fuels support for illiberal populism. Fukuyama analyzes the institutional challenges intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic and the paradox of the U.S.'s international strength contrasted with its internal divisions. Their conversation also touches on the implications for foreign policy amid rising global tensions.
Trump's electoral success highlights a global trend of populism undermining liberal democracy amid rising economic discontent and dissatisfaction with incumbent leaders.
The current threats to liberal democracy stem from populist leaders' actions that weaken institutional checks and balances, challenging the foundational principles of democratic governance.
Deep dives
Economic Discontent and Global Democracy
Economic discontent has emerged as a significant force that can overshadow support for global democracy, particularly highlighted by the recent political trends. The election of Donald Trump has been perceived as a setback for liberal democracy, with authoritarian leaders around the world finding encouragement in his victory. This phenomenon has led to the rise of illiberal populism in various regions, as evidenced by the growing influence of right-leaning parties in Europe and beyond. The interconnectedness of financial instability and political discontent continues to threaten democratic institutions globally.
Defining Liberal Democracy
Liberal democracy combines democratic accountability through free elections with constraints on state power through checks and balances, emphasizing the rule of law. Current threats to this framework primarily arise not from the erosion of democratic processes, but from populist leaders who challenge the liberal principles underlying democracy. Examples include political maneuvers that undermine judicial independence and restrict press freedoms, as seen in Trump’s administration and parallels in nations like Turkey and India. This gradual erosion of institutions signifies a worrying trend for the future of liberal democracy.
Pandemic's Impact on Trust in Government
The COVID-19 pandemic has played a pivotal role in discrediting governments by exacerbating public dissatisfaction and anger towards incumbents. Many leaders struggled to balance public health measures with economic and social needs, leading to perceptions of incompetence. The resulting fallout contributed to a political environment rife with conspiracy theories and a general distrust in established institutions. Consequently, this environment may pose long-term challenges in restoring faith in government and addressing systemic reforms.
Evolving Challenges in U.S. Foreign Policy
The complex dynamics of U.S. foreign policy require a balance between addressing internal divisions and exerting international influence. Despite domestic political dysfunction, America maintains strong economic and military positions, though these factors risk being undermined by polarization. The effectiveness of U.S. foreign policy is now questioned, particularly concerning its ability to deter adversaries like Russia and China due to hesitant political consensus. An increasingly ambitious China may exploit these divisions, prompting concerns about its military assertiveness and the stability of global alliances.
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election comes at a moment of turbulence for global democracy. It’s been a year marked by almost universal backlash against incumbent leaders by voters apparently eager to express their anger with the status quo—and also an era when liberalism has been in retreat, if not in crisis.
Francis Fukuyama, a political scientist at Stanford University, has done as much as anyone to elucidate the currents shaping and reshaping global politics. He wrote TheEnd of History and the Last Man, a seminal work of post–Cold War political theory, more than three decades ago. And in the years since, he has written a series of influential essays for Foreign Affairs and other publications.
He joins Editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan to consider what Trump’s return to the presidency means for liberal democracy—and whether its future, in the United States and around the world, is truly at stake.