CIO Global Livestream: From tariffs to AI: how to navigate market volatility
Jan 29, 2025
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Ulrika Hoffman-Vacardi, Global Head of Equities at UBS CIO, and Paul Donovan, Global Chief Economist at UBS, dive into the intricacies of today's market. They discuss the evolving landscape of AI advancements and how they present new investment opportunities. The duo explores recent U.S. tariff policies and their unpredictable economic impacts, highlighting their role as a sales tax on consumers. Additionally, they analyze European equities in light of geopolitical shifts, focusing on low valuations and infrastructure investments.
The introduction of DeepSeek's low-cost R1 AI model presents a significant investment opportunity in technology, particularly as demand for computational resources is expected to rise.
U.S. tariffs may have a modest negative impact on growth and inflation, but historical trends suggest that market adjustments will likely mitigate these effects over time.
Deep dives
Opportunities Presented by DeepSeek's AI Model
The introduction of DeepSeek's R1 AI model represents a significant opportunity for investors in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, electrification, and energy resources. The low-cost nature of this model positions it for widespread adoption, which is expected to lead to increased demand for computational resources. Historical trends support the notion that cheaper technology tends to be adopted more widely, suggesting that the market's initial negative reaction may be misguided. This situation encourages investors to consider strategic positions within an AI-focused portfolio, particularly due to the anticipated growth in AI utilization and the continued investment in training and infrastructure.
Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Inflation and Growth
U.S. tariffs under President Trump's administration are likely to influence inflation and economic growth in a nuanced manner. While selective tariffs may initially increase consumer prices, their effectiveness tends to diminish over time as businesses adapt, often rerouting supply chains to minimize costs. Conversely, universal tariffs could lead to more significant price increases for consumers, as they would apply across the board, limiting competitive pressures. Overall, it is predicted that tariffs could have a modest negative impact on U.S. growth, but disinflationary forces in the economy may offset these tariff-induced price pressures.
Outlook for Global Equities Amid Tariffs and Political Shifts
The global equity outlook remains favorable, particularly for U.S. equities, despite the challenges posed by tariffs and political uncertainties. Historical precedent indicates that while tariffs can generate immediate stock market declines, these impacts often become less severe over time as markets adjust and negotiate. The current earnings expectations in sectors such as healthcare and technology may also drive positive performance inversely related to tariff impacts. Additionally, potential shifts in European politics, particularly with upcoming elections, could unlock significant opportunities within European equities, enhancing the overall investment landscape.
Host, Kiran Ganesh, and colleagues present updated tariff scenarios, explore the implications of recent advancements in AI for investors, and share strategies to manage heightened market volatility.
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