The new psychology of a $2T bitcoin market with James Check

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Sep 23, 2025

James Check, co-founder of CheckOnChain, brings his expertise in on-chain analysis to the discussion. He explains why realized cap is a vital adoption metric and how it crossed the $1 trillion mark. The conversation dives into the psychology of Bitcoin holders, mapping human emotions like fear and greed onto on-chain data. James also discusses the implications of ETFs and derivatives on market dynamics, alongside key support zones for future predictions. His insights reveal how complex data can narrate compelling stories about investor behavior.

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ANECDOTE

Forged By The 2017 Top

James Check bought at the 2017 top and learned from the 2018 bear market experience.
That painful early loss shaped his shift to on-chain analysis and long-term thinking.

INSIGHT

On-Chain Data As A Behavioral Map

On-chain data maps holders' cost bases and spending behavior across cohorts and time.
This creates a ‘mind map’ of Bitcoiners that reveals incentives and likely market moves.

INSIGHT

Realized Cap As Adoption Metric

Realized cap values each coin at its last transaction price, revealing true saver cost basis across holders.
It recently crossed $1 trillion, signaling cumulative fiat saved into Bitcoin.

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James Check (aka Checkmate) is the co-founder of Checkonchain and one of the leading voices making onchain data accessible for everyday bitcoiners. Known for his ability to turn complex charts into compelling stories, James blends his engineering background with market analysis to help people see human behavior imprinted in bitcoin’s ledger. In this episode, James joins The Bitcoin Frontier to share why realized cap is one of the most powerful adoption metrics, how to interpret profit and loss across holders, and what onchain data is saying about the current cycle. We dig into the role of ETFs and treasury companies, the impact of derivatives on market structure, and why the future of onchain analytics remains deeply human.

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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 – Intro & why onchain data matters for bitcoin
1:30 – Buying the 2017 top, engineering background & finding bitcoin
4:50 – Realized cap, cost basis, and why it just crossed $1T
7:30 – From civil engineering to onchain analysis
10:00 – Orange pill moments, macro influences, and early metrics
12:40 – Human behavior, fear & greed mapped onchain
15:00 – Turning raw data into stories people understand
18:00 – State of the market in 2025: leverage, ETFs, and demand
22:00 – Cycles, late-stage dynamics & institutional flows
26:00 – Rethinking market cycles: the three-cycle structure
31:00 – Sell-side pressure, hodlers, and ETF dynamics
35:00 – Are ETFs and treasury companies changing onchain analysis?
40:00 – Profit, loss, and building decision frameworks for different price scenarios
46:00 – Key support zones: 110K, 90K, and Sailor’s liquidation line
49:00 – Derivatives, ETFs, and how flows shape volatility
54:00 – Risks of leverage, banks entering, and future fireworks
58:00 – Rapid fire: desert island metrics, entry point for retail, and data wish list
1:02:00 – The Australian bitcoin community & grassroots conferences
1:05:30 – The future of onchain analytics, AI, and Checkonchain’s next report

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:
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→ James Check’s Twitter: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_
→ Connor Dolan’s Twitter: