Rethinking Cycles: Three‑Phase Structure

James Check (aka Checkmate) is the co-founder of Checkonchain and one of the leading voices making onchain data accessible for everyday bitcoiners. Known for his ability to turn complex charts into compelling stories, James blends his engineering background with market analysis to help people see human behavior imprinted in bitcoin’s ledger. In this episode, James joins The Bitcoin Frontier to share why realized cap is one of the most powerful adoption metrics, how to interpret profit and loss across holders, and what onchain data is saying about the current cycle. We dig into the role of ETFs and treasury companies, the impact of derivatives on market structure, and why the future of onchain analytics remains deeply human.

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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 – Intro & why onchain data matters for bitcoin
1:30 – Buying the 2017 top, engineering background & finding bitcoin
4:50 – Realized cap, cost basis, and why it just crossed $1T
7:30 – From civil engineering to onchain analysis
10:00 – Orange pill moments, macro influences, and early metrics
12:40 – Human behavior, fear & greed mapped onchain
15:00 – Turning raw data into stories people understand
18:00 – State of the market in 2025: leverage, ETFs, and demand
22:00 – Cycles, late-stage dynamics & institutional flows
26:00 – Rethinking market cycles: the three-cycle structure
31:00 – Sell-side pressure, hodlers, and ETF dynamics
35:00 – Are ETFs and treasury companies changing onchain analysis?
40:00 – Profit, loss, and building decision frameworks for different price scenarios
46:00 – Key support zones: 110K, 90K, and Sailor’s liquidation line
49:00 – Derivatives, ETFs, and how flows shape volatility
54:00 – Risks of leverage, banks entering, and future fireworks
58:00 – Rapid fire: desert island metrics, entry point for retail, and data wish list
1:02:00 – The Australian bitcoin community & grassroots conferences
1:05:30 – The future of onchain analytics, AI, and Checkonchain’s next report

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