088: Complex isn't the same as complicated

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Dec 6, 2024

Explore the intriguing difference between complexity and complication through captivating metaphors like mayonnaise and iconic structures. Discover how real-world project management can become unpredictable and why understanding these nuances is vital. The conversation highlights Boeing's design challenges, emphasizing safety vs. cost. Learn strategies for effective problem-solving, collaboration, and bridging divides in high-stakes environments. The importance of assessing past experiences in tackling new complexities rounds out an insightful discussion.

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INSIGHT

Complexity vs. Complication

Complex projects differ fundamentally from complicated ones, involving a phase shift rather than a simple increase in difficulty.
This distinction is crucial for effective project management, as different approaches are required for each domain.

ADVICE

Project Decomposition

Decompose projects into smaller components and categorize them into different domains (clear, complicated, complex, chaotic).
This allows for applying appropriate methods to each part and managing the overall project more effectively.

ADVICE

Estimating Complexity

Use Liz Keogh's "Estimating Complexity" method to assess uncertainty in projects.
Ask if anyone on the team, in the company, or outside has done exactly this before to gauge complexity.

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"We often give building a house as an example of something in the complicated sphere. But then we talked in recent episodes about the nightmare build of the Sydney Opera House – that was complex, but people were treating it like it was complicated. What's the difference? What makes one complicated and one complex? Is it a sliding scale from one to the other? How do you know which realm you're in?"

This broad question comes up a lot when people encounter complexity.

Hello again, Cynefin
The phase shift from complicated to complex
You're not "in" any domain: instead, you decompose a project or situation into smaller chunks, distribute those chunks into domains, and then you can use applicable methods
Then your job is to move those chunks from one domain to another – like constraining something complex and unpredictable so you can make it more predictable for you
Estimating Complexity by Liz Keogh: have you done this before?
Light switches vs electricity substations vs energy markets vs power failures.
Fun with etymology
"An aeroplane is complicated; a mayonnaise is complex"
The role of connectedness
Global warming and a social ice age
Many folks are intuitively good at handling complexity without knowing all the words and that's OK
Processes and procedures to make things less unpredictable ... until they stop working
Methods to achieve the liminal complex to complicated phase shift
A Simon Wardley example of waste in an organisation
The surface layer of a thing is not necessarily everything that thing does
Boeing and the slip over the cliff from Clear to Chaos
Chesterton's aeroplane seat
Seeds vs Soil
The liminal complicated zone where experts disagree and people have Opinions.
If there's disagreement about an element of a project, decompose it until the disagreement goes away
Is there always a level of decomposition where you stop disagreeing?
Football example ...
Jefferson Fisher's courtroom example ...
The move into Aporia and the EU Field Guide for Managing Complexity

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