Brian Hale on how housing will change because of this election
Nov 13, 2024
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Brian Hale, CEO of Mortgage Advisory Partners and veteran with 40 years in the mortgage industry, shares his insights on how the recent election may reshape the housing landscape. He discusses the potential shifts in mortgage rates and regulations, emphasizing the importance of ethical lending amid economic uncertainty. Hale delves into the future of government-sponsored enterprises and their crucial role in the housing market. He also addresses upcoming challenges in housing origination and the implications of changing demographics and policies for homeownership.
The recent elections are expected to create a cautious environment for housing professionals due to elevated mortgage rates and inflation uncertainties.
A Republican majority may result in a less stringent regulatory climate, but stakeholders should prepare for potential shifts in governance affecting the housing industry.
Deep dives
Impact of the Election on the Housing Industry
The recent elections have resulted in a definitive outcome that is crucial for the housing industry, as the certainty is believed to be favorable compared to the chaos of lawsuits and debates over election results. With Republicans gaining a slim majority in the House and a significant presence in the Senate, industry experts like Brian Hale suggest that although this shift may appear advantageous, it may not lead to seamless legislative processes. The close margins imply that achieving sweeping reforms may prove challenging and require careful negotiation and collaboration. This political landscape is expected to influence rates and regulations, introducing an era of caution among housing professionals.
Challenges Facing Mortgage Rates
Current mortgage rates are reportedly at the highest point seen in several months, despite recent Fed rate cuts, complicating the environment for housing specialists. Twinned with concerns over inflation driven by tariff policies and increasing government borrowing costs, the bond market's reaction will play a significant role in determining interest rates. Experts anticipate that even with a definitive election outcome, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding inflation could keep rates elevated for an extended period, with some predicting rates may rise rather than fall in the short term. A lack of a refinancing boom and emerging economic pressures indicate professionals in the industry must brace for a complex trajectory ahead.
Regulation Landscape Under Republican Leadership
Experts predict that a Republican majority in the government will lead to a less rigorous regulatory environment, particularly concerning fair lending and appraisal practices, a marked shift from the previous administration. However, historical data shows that many regulations have long look-back periods, which means the industry must remain cautious and prepared for future shifts in governance. The podcast suggests the financial services sector should focus on its core business operations and efficiency rather than being overly reactive to political changes that might affect regulations. An emphasis on prudent business practices, regardless of the regulatory landscape, remains crucial for navigating potential volatility.
Long-Term Outlook for Housing and Immigration
A stable economic environment and healthy real estate market depend heavily on population growth, influenced significantly by immigration policies. As historical trends demonstrate, the U.S. struggles to maintain population levels conducive to economic prosperity, highlighting the need for legal immigration to spur growth in home buying. Industry leaders caution against restrictive immigration policies, as this can reduce the pool of potential homebuyers and hinder the overall economic health. Looking ahead, understanding these dynamics will be essential for stakeholders in the housing market, as they will need to adapt strategies in a fluctuating political and economic environment.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Brian Hale, CEO and founder of Mortgage Advisory Partners, about the election and what he thinks we'll see on mortgage rates, regulation, GSE conservatorship and more.
The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.