Less Noise, More Signal Major macro-tail risk for 2026?
11 snips
Dec 25, 2025 
Michael Nadeau, founder of The DeFi Report and an expert in crypto and Web3, dives into the changing U.S. economic landscape. He discusses macro risks, trade imbalances, and the implications of monetary policies. Nadeau highlights Bitcoin's unique market behavior and liquidity challenges, linking its recent movements to broader market sentiments. Additionally, he examines the impact of globalization on production and outlines potential opportunities and risks for 2026, providing valuable insights for investors.
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Marginal Shift From Fiscal To Private-Led Growth
- The U.S. economy is shifting from fiscal dominance toward private-sector stimulation through lower rates and tariffs.
- This on-the-margin shift can reduce liquidity and weaken risk-asset support despite still-elevated deficits.
Currency Adjustment Is The Real Fix
- Trade imbalances require currency adjustment rather than tariffs alone.
- Coordinated devaluation of the dollar is the likely long-term solution to rebalance global trade.
Weaker Dollar Can Trigger Capital Repatriation
- A weaker dollar plus lower rates may not be bullish for risk assets if capital flows back home.
- Bitcoin and other non-sovereign stores of value could benefit after a messy repricing.
