Major macro-tail risk for 2026?
Less Noise, More Signal
Signals to Watch: DXY, Real Rates, and Liquidity
Michael lists indicators—DXY, long-end yields, liquidity metrics—and how Fed actions could affect outcomes.
In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Michael Nadeau discuss the shifting economic landscape in the U.S., focusing on macro risks, trade imbalances, and the role of tariffs. Michael explores the implications of fiscal deficits and government spending dynamics, as well as the geopolitical factors influencing currency adjustments. The discussion also delves into Bitcoin's market behavior, liquidity concerns, and the impact of globalization on production. Nadeau emphasizes the interplay of capital flows and asset valuations, market psychology, and the unique position of Bitcoin in the current economic climate, while looking ahead to potential opportunities and risks for 2026.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:31 Shifting Economic Landscape and Macro Risks
02:43 The Role of Tariffs and Trade Imbalances
05:59 Fiscal Deficits and Government Spending Dynamics
08:42 Geopolitical Factors and Currency Adjustments
11:48 Bitcoin's Market Behavior and Liquidity Concerns
14:52 The Future of Bitcoin Amidst Economic Changes
17:42 Globalization and Its Impact on Production
21:10 The Interplay of Capital Flows and Asset Valuations
24:04 Market Psychology and Bitcoin's Unique Position
26:57 Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Risks for 2026
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#crypto, #Bitcoin, #macroeconomics, #tradeimbalances, #fiscaldeficit, #tariffs, #geopolitics, #marketpsychology, #liquidity, #globalization
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