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At Any Rate

Global Commodities: If you need oil this summer, who you gonna call?

Jun 28, 2024
The podcast discusses the projected rise in oil prices, expecting Brent oil to reach $90 by August/September due to global demand outpacing supply. It analyzes factors like peak refinery demand, low OPEC exports, and the lack of closure in speculative investor short base, leaving room for financial demand recovery.
12:28

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Quick takeaways

  • Projected Brent oil to average $84/bbl in Q3 with a potential $90 by August/September due to global demand surpassing supply.
  • Peak refinery demand for crude expected to last through August, while OPEC crude exports decrease and financial demand may recover.

Deep dives

Oil Prices Rally and Market Outlook

Oil prices have seen a significant rally, with Brent Crude trading above $86 and WTI above $82, indicating a strong recovery of more than 10% from the early June slump. Market indicators suggest a robust underlying physical market, backed by the strengthening of time spreads and product market improvements. The long-held projection maintains Brent oil averaging $84 in the third quarter, and a potential rise to $90 by August or September, driven by the expectation of global demand surpassing supply.

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