Our long-held view remains unchanged: we project Brent oil to average $84/bbl in the third quarter and hit another $90 by August/September, underpinned by our expectations that global demand will outpace supply in the summer quarter. Demand indicators look solid, especially in the all-important US market and peak refinery demand for crude is now firmly in place and should last through August. Meanwhile, OPEC waterborne crude exports are trending at their lowest monthly volumes in two years so far in June. Crucially, despite the 10% price rally, the short base by speculative investors has not been closed, with more room for financial demand to recover.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2024.

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