Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg Ambition and expected value at extremes (with Habiba Islam)
Sep 21, 2022
In this discussion, Habiba Islam, an advisor at 80,000 Hours and former barrister, explores the balance between ambition and altruism. She tackles how to set lofty career goals while calculating expected values, especially when probabilities become extreme. The conversation highlights the necessity of pragmatic backup plans and community support to navigate risks. Habiba also critiques traditional views in effective altruism, urging a deeper understanding of ethical responsibilities towards future generations, particularly in light of climate change.
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Ambition for Do-Gooders
- Do-gooders should consider ambitious career goals.
- Take calculated risks on high-impact, low-probability opportunities.
Expected Value for Do-Gooders
- When considering ambitious goals, use expected value calculations (probability times outcome).
- This helps assess potential impact, especially when balancing high-risk, high-reward scenarios.
Expected Value Limitations
- Expected value calculations struggle with extremely low probabilities and extremely high values.
- Pascal's Mugging illustrates this, where a minuscule probability of immense suffering can skew decisions.