Ambition and expected value at extremes (with Habiba Islam)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
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Navigating Extreme Probabilities
This chapter explores the intricate nature of extreme probabilities and their influence on decision-making, particularly in hypothetical scenarios like time travel. It highlights thought experiments such as Pascal's mugging, illustrating the challenges of rationality in the face of minuscule chances paired with immense outcomes. The discussion also contrasts frequentist and Bayesian interpretations of probability, revealing their implications on expected value calculations and decision-making in uncertain contexts.
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